2015 TOUR DE FRANCE RACE PREVIEW and FAVORITES

 Le Grand Départ...

2015 Tour de France route map

The 2015 Tour De France should provide plenty of fireworks for the fans. The extreme lack of time-trial kilometers will make the race one especially for the climbers. The opening prologue stage is the only solo effort against the clock in the race; it is an individual TT of just under 14 kms. Stage 9 features the a 28k team time trial, which, coming so late in the race, and after an especially challenging first eight days, will likely provide some interesting time splits among the overall contenders.

The first week includes several obstacles for the riders to overcome before they reach the mountainous second half of the race, where the real selections will take place. Crosswinds, cobbles and punchy, Classics-like stages pepper the first half of the race, so the GC contenders will have to be extra-vigilant, and their teams will have to keep their leaders well-protected in order to survive the kinds of challenges that took out some of last year's top contenders before they even reached the mountains.

Despite threats of landslides forcing the organizers to cut out what was supposed to be the Tour's highest mountain pass, the Tourmalet-Galibier double, the race remains a mountainous one. I count 57 categorized climbs throughout the route, with six summit finishes (five big ones) and five more stages with climbing finales to light up the TV camera lenses. Combine this with the dearth of TT kms, and we have a race tailor-made for the climbing specialists who don't necessarily fare well against the clock.

Alberto Contador

The list of serious contenders for the overall win is long and illustrious, and is complimented by an even longer list of what I will call "secondary contenders". The top four GC favorites are Alberto Contador of the Tinkoff-Saxo team, Vincenzo Nibali for Astana, Chris Froome of the British Team Sky, and Nairo Quintana of the Spanish Movistar squad.  A huge challenge for all the riders will be simply to survive the first half of the race, with all its menacing pitfalls, just to get the opportunity to reach the mountains, where the real fighting will erupt.


Alberto Contador, the most prolific grand tour winner of this year's contenders, is attempting to complete the first Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani's famous 1998 expedition. The Spaniard ticked off the first half of the remarkable quest with his win in this spring's Giro d'Italia. Besides his rivals and the tough parcours, El Pistolero's big challenge will be his physical recovery from the efforts of the Italian Grand Tour. If his body has recovered well, then Contador will be a very difficult man to contain. His ability to attack repeatedly in the mountains is a huge asset toward dropping the wheels--and the morale--of his foes. He is highly motivated, and should never, ever be underestimated.

Vincenzo Nibali

Vincenzo Nibali comes in trying to defend his 2014 Tour win after a lackluster first half of this season. He hadn't won a race all year, until last week when he bagged the Italian National Road Race title for the second consecutive year. His form seems to be coming on at the right time. The Shark from Messina can be expected to come fully prepared for the Tour, as he is an experienced Grand Tour veteran who knows what it takes to win the biggest races in the world. His team is strong, and includes several potential stage-winners as well.

Chris Froome

 
Chris Froome may be the one contender who will most rue the lack of time-trial miles in this year's edition. Despite his inability to capitalize on his great success in the chronos, however, the Kenyan-born Brit also has the chops to make big strides when the roads turn upward. Like Contador, Froome's 2014 Tour seemed to be over before it began, so he will be looking for some payback this time around. The cobbles are back again this year, and may pose the greatest threat to Froome's chances before the real mountain climbing begins on stage 10.

Nairo Quintana

Nairo Quintana spends much of his training time in his home mountains of Colombia, rather than with some of his teammates on Tenerife. Living his whole life at altitude is surely an advantage in an endurance sport, and Quintana is hoping to parlay that into his first Tour de France win. At 25, he is the youngest of the favorites, but many believe that he has a real chance to steal this race from the veterans. Alongside NQ is Alejandro Valverde, an incredibly versatile and successful rider in his own right--and a grand tour winner himself. Valverde offers possibly the best super-domestique talent in the race (and is a legitimate alternative for team Movistar should Quintana fail). Quintana will be the contender who benefits the most from the absence of a long ITT, so this year may offer one of the best opportunities the talented young Colombian will ever get to take the win.

All four of this year's top favorites have enjoyed moments of success against their rivals this year, but each has shown chinks in their armor as well. At this point no single rider seems to look like an overwhelming favorite. What this means is that we may be treated with one of the most thrilling grand tour battles in recent memory. Of course, the treacherous first half of the race may, like last year, prevent some of the favorites from getting the opportunity to duke it out in the Pyrenees and Alps, where the winner will surely be decided.

Other possible podium contenders at the 2015 Tour de France include the American Tejay Van Garderen for BMC Racing, Spanish climbing star Joaquim "Purito" Rodriguez of Katusha, Dutchman Bauke Mollema for Trek Factory Racing, and the French duo of Thibaut Pinot of FDJ and Romain Bardet for AG2R. Alejandro Valverde will be working for Quintana, but depending on circumstances, the Spaniard is another possible podium contender himself.

Here is a list of several other big talents who could be vying for high GC positions in Paris:
Rigoberto Uran, Rui Costa, Simon Yates, Richie Porte, Wilco Kelderman, Rafal Majka, Robert Gesink, Andrew Talansky, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, Jakob Fuglsang, Louis Meintjes, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Steven Kruijswijk, Tony Gallopin, Damiano Caruso, Ryder Hesjedal, Warren Barguil, Michele Scarponi, Roman Kreuziger, Tanel Kangert, Alexis Vuillermoz, Leo Konig, Tiago Machado, Giampaolo Caruso, Laurens Ten Dam, Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Julian Arredondo, Rafael Valls, Kristijan Durasek, Sammy Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, Mathias Frank, and Eduardo Sepulveda.


Despite the mountainous focus, the sprinters will not be left out of this year's Tour. The so-called "flat" stages this year come in various shapes and sizes, with a variety of different finishes, such that no individual sprinter stands out as the overall favorite to win the Green Jersey in Paris. A preponderance of Classics-type stages early on, including finishes on the Mur de Huy, the Mur de Bretagne and the cobbled stage 4 to Cambrai, will give the stronger finishers some opportunities to grab points and bonus seconds that could disrupt the pure sprinters from running away with the Maillot Vert.

Mark Cavendish returns as possibly the standout pure sprinter, but he will be challenged by the likes of Peter Sagan, Andrei Greipel, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demare, Sam Bennett, Michael Matthews, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Greg Van Avermaet, Bryan Coquard, and Davide Cimolai. Other fast finishers include Sep Vanmarcke, Michael Valgren, Sylvain Chavanel, Pippo Pozzato, Jens Debuscherre, Matteo Trentin, Zdenek Stybar, Luca Paolini, Simon Gerrans, Nathan Haas, Sebastian Langeveld, Dylan Van Baarle, Julien Simon, Kenneth Vanbilsen, Ian Stannard, Luke Rowe, Jacopo Guarnieri, Daniele Bennati, Daniel Oss, Pierre-Luc Perichon, Danilo Wyss, Reinardt and Jacques Janse Van Rensburg, and Tyler Farrar. Many of these names will be leading out their respective sprint leaders, but, particularly on the classics-type stages, they may find opportunities to shine.

Many route breakdowns have been posted online, so I am going to forgo my usual observations of each particular stage profile. But I have picked apart the route meticulously and the following are some of my predictions for the race:

Final GC:

1. Contador
2. Nibali
3. Quintana
4. Froome
5. Van Garderen
6. Rodriguez
7. Pinot
8. Valverde
9. Bardet
10. Uran
11. Mollema
12. Rui Costa
13. Kelderman
14. Porte
15. Yates


Points Competition:

1. Sagan
2. Kristoff
3. Cavendish
4. Greipel
5. Degenkolb

Tony Martin, stage-one favorite

STAGE 1 Picks:

Considering the extreme lack of individual time trial kms in this 102nd edition of Le Grande Boucle, it may seem surprising that almost all of the world's top TT men will be at the start on Saturday. They have just the one short test to show their stuff, but they will also come in very handy for the GC contenders when their teams have to line up on stage 9 for the team time trial.

Here are my top picks for the opening individual time trial prologue stage on Saturday:

1. Tony Martin
2. Fabian Cancellara
3. Tom Dumoulin
4. Adriano Malori
5. Alex Dowsett
6. Matthias Brandle
7. Chris Froome
8. Rohan Dennis
9. Bob Jungels
10. Wilco Kelderman

The list of TT contenders is long, like the GC contenders, so the outcome is far from sure. Here are several other names of riders who could turn in very good results in the opening TT:
Van Emden, Castroviejo, Kwiatkowski, Porte, Durbridge, Coppel, Elmiger, Cummings, Talansky, Matthews, Barta, Contador, Valverde, Thomas, Boom, Chavanel, Clement, Westra, Fuglsang, Tuft, Vermote, D Caruso, Grivko, De Gendt, Irizar, Oliveira, Kristoff, Boasson Hagen.

I am sure I must have left some out, but already you can see how much competition there will be to determine who gets to wear the first yellow jersey of the race.


The 2015 Tour de France will be broadcast on cable television in the U.S. each day by NBC Sports Network.

Enjoy the race!

Stage 14 Race Report and Results 2013 Vuelta a España

A young long shot survived to take the win in the first Pyrenean mountain stage today. We saw another stage winner come from the early breakaway on stage 14. Terrible weather had a big impact on the race, causing problems for many riders.

Here is my [rough] stage-14 report if you want to read a brief outline of how the race unfolded. Afterwards you’ll find some comments and my pick for tomorrow:

Stage 14 profile

Stage 14

Baga to Andorra, 155.7k

First day of bad weather

Rain, cold (Temps mid 40’s; beow 40f/5c at Envalira summit)

No TV images for first couple of hours due to cloud cover.

*Early Break went at km3: LL Sanchez, Gilbert, Ratto, Chainel, and Brown.

Lead is up to 11:25

The leaders are on the HC Envalira climb:

The HC climb is 26.7k long

Brown has been there to help Sanchez;

Brown and Chainel are quickly dropped on the climb

Stage 14, 15 and 16 Pyrenees Previews 2013 Vuelta a España

Collective profiles of stages 14, 15 and 16 through the Pyrenees

The Pyrenean stages visit three countries

Stages 14, 15 and 16 take the Vuelta a España into the majestic Pyrenees. The peloton will spend time in Andorra and France, cross eleven categorized climbs—five of which are category 1 or above—and only the strong will survive. Each of the next three stages ends with a category-1 summit finish.  Not one is a walk in the park, but stage 15 stands out as the big killer. I don’t know what other folks think, but in my opinion, stage 15 (which traverses four cat-1 climbs, and ends with the Peyresourde-Peyragudes double) is the queen stage of this Vuelta.

I am not going to be around for a few days, so I am writing this before stage 13. This post is a brief, single preview now for all three Pyrenean stages...

Stage 13 Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

Stage 13 profile

Stage 13 on the map

Stage 13 is a rolling 169 kilometers, which looks at first glance like a sprinter’s stage. But the profile might be slightly misleading. The most outstanding characteristic on the profile is the climb that comes 115 kilometers into the stage. The category-1 Alto del Rat Penat rises 460 meters over 4.3k for an average gradient of a painful 10.6% and a max of 16%, but it tops out with about 50k to go to the finish. It should produce some splits in the peloton, probably dropping some of the sprinters, but 50k is a lot of road to pull back an escape.

The cat-1 climb profile

Ten KOM points are available at the summit of the category-1 Alto del Rat Penat climb, in addition to the three points up for grabs on the early cat-3 climb. While that is no windfall of mountain points, it could still be significant enough in a tight polka dot jersey race, to tempt a persistent jersey hunter like maybe Cofidis’ Nicolas Edet, or Saxo’s Tomas Marczynski, to get into the break.

The final 5k ends with a short slope up

The finale should prove to be the deciding factor when the riders speed in to Castelldefels on the Balearic Coast near Barcelona. 15 flat final kilometers lead up to a four hundred meter slope up to the line. The hill gets steeper toward the top, so this is not exactly ideal for the sprinters. But the stronger, punchy finishers should like the look of the finale.

Expect Philippe Gilbert and Edvald Boasson Hagen to go for it again tomorrow. I would also expect to see Rinaldo Nocentini, Michael Matthews, Gianni Meersman, maybe Stybar or Flecha, and possibly several of the top GC riders take a shot at that final kick up to the line. I would not be surprised at all to see Fabian Cancellara take another shot at a stage win on Friday.

My pick to win stage 13: I really like Nocentini, Gilbert, and Boasson Hagen for stage 13. Yesterday I picked Gilbert to win stage 13, but then he won stage 12 today. So I am going to go with Edvald Boasson Hagen of Team Sky for the win on Friday.

My dark-horse pick goes to Warren Barguil of Argos Shimano. 

2013 Tour De France Stage 1 Preview

The 2013 Tour de France begins tomorrow in Porto-Vecchio, Corsica. A flat stage with a bunch sprint finish is expected. Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Peter Sagan, Marcel Kittel, Matt Goss, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni and others will face off for the honor of wearing the first Maillot Jaune of the Tour.

Stage One Profile

My pick for stage 1: Mark Cavendish

Here is my prediction for the final Yellow Jersey Classification at the 2013 Tour De France:

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Valverde
4. Evans
5. Rodriguez
6. Van Den Broeck
7. Mollema
8. Quintana
9. Porte
10. Fuglsang

Other Jerseys:

Green Jersey: Peter Sagan

Mountain Jersey: Chris Froome

White Jersey: Tejay Van Garderen

Team: Garmin Sharp

2013 Critérium du Dauphiné Race Preview

The spring season is basically over, and it’s time for one of the key races that the riders and teams use to fine-tune their summer form going into the Tour De France. The Critérium du Dauphiné offers the riders an eight stage opportunity to test their legs against many of the same competitors that they will face in the Tour De France--and a small glance at some of the upcoming Tour De France route.

The 2013 Critérium du Dauphiné route

The 65^th edition of the Dauphiné begins this Sunday, June 2 in Champéry, Switzerland and ends the following Sunday in Risoul, France. The race is eight stages long and covers about 1138 kilometers in total. This year’s edition is particularly hilly, with four climbing finishes (2 big ones), and only one or two potential legitimate bunch-sprint stages. It also includes a 32.5 km flat individual time trial on stage 4.

Part of stage 8 of the Dauphiné includes the renowned 21 switchbacks of the Alpe d’Huez climb, followed by a short descent and climb over the Col de Sarenne. This same section of the route will feature in stage 18 of the Tour De France next month, so the riders can get some practice in.  The TDF route however, will then climb Alpe d’Huez a second time, the summit hosting that stage’s finish.

No time bonuses at the Dauphiné stage finishes means riders will have to attack the leaders and try to gain valuable time in the hills or in the time trial.  This will not be easy since many of the Tour favorites will be here testing themselves and each other’s prowess.

As usual the Critérium du Dauphiné has drawn most of the Tour De France favorites. The winner of the last two editions, Bradley Wiggins of Team Sky, has dropped out of the race, citing lingering illness and knee pain from his...