2015 TOUR DE FRANCE RACE PREVIEW and FAVORITES

 Le Grand Départ...

2015 Tour de France route map

The 2015 Tour De France should provide plenty of fireworks for the fans. The extreme lack of time-trial kilometers will make the race one especially for the climbers. The opening prologue stage is the only solo effort against the clock in the race; it is an individual TT of just under 14 kms. Stage 9 features the a 28k team time trial, which, coming so late in the race, and after an especially challenging first eight days, will likely provide some interesting time splits among the overall contenders.

The first week includes several obstacles for the riders to overcome before they reach the mountainous second half of the race, where the real selections will take place. Crosswinds, cobbles and punchy, Classics-like stages pepper the first half of the race, so the GC contenders will have to be extra-vigilant, and their teams will have to keep their leaders well-protected in order to survive the kinds of challenges that took out some of last year's top contenders before they even reached the mountains.

Despite threats of landslides forcing the organizers to cut out what was supposed to be the Tour's highest mountain pass, the Tourmalet-Galibier double, the race remains a mountainous one. I count 57 categorized climbs throughout the route, with six summit finishes (five big ones) and five more stages with climbing finales to light up the TV camera lenses. Combine this with the dearth of TT kms, and we have a race tailor-made for the climbing specialists who don't necessarily fare well against the clock.

Alberto Contador

The list of serious contenders for the overall win is long and illustrious, and is complimented by an even longer list of what I will call "secondary contenders". The top four GC favorites are Alberto Contador of the Tinkoff-Saxo team, Vincenzo Nibali for Astana, Chris Froome of the British Team Sky, and Nairo Quintana of the Spanish Movistar squad.  A huge challenge for all the riders will be simply to survive the first half of the race, with all its menacing pitfalls, just to get the opportunity to reach the mountains, where the real fighting will erupt.


Alberto Contador, the most prolific grand tour winner of this year's contenders, is attempting to complete the first Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani's famous 1998 expedition. The Spaniard ticked off the first half of the remarkable quest with his win in this spring's Giro d'Italia. Besides his rivals and the tough parcours, El Pistolero's big challenge will be his physical recovery from the efforts of the Italian Grand Tour. If his body has recovered well, then Contador will be a very difficult man to contain. His ability to attack repeatedly in the mountains is a huge asset toward dropping the wheels--and the morale--of his foes. He is highly motivated, and should never, ever be underestimated.

Vincenzo Nibali

Vincenzo Nibali comes in trying to defend his 2014 Tour win after a lackluster first half of this season. He hadn't won a race all year, until last week when he bagged the Italian National Road Race title for the second consecutive year. His form seems to be coming on at the right time. The Shark from Messina can be expected to come fully prepared for the Tour, as he is an experienced Grand Tour veteran who knows what it takes to win the biggest races in the world. His team is strong, and includes several potential stage-winners as well.

Chris Froome

 
Chris Froome may be the one contender who will most rue the lack of time-trial miles in this year's edition. Despite his inability to capitalize on his great success in the chronos, however, the Kenyan-born Brit also has the chops to make big strides when the roads turn upward. Like Contador, Froome's 2014 Tour seemed to be over before it began, so he will be looking for some payback this time around. The cobbles are back again this year, and may pose the greatest threat to Froome's chances before the real mountain climbing begins on stage 10.

Nairo Quintana

Nairo Quintana spends much of his training time in his home mountains of Colombia, rather than with some of his teammates on Tenerife. Living his whole life at altitude is surely an advantage in an endurance sport, and Quintana is hoping to parlay that into his first Tour de France win. At 25, he is the youngest of the favorites, but many believe that he has a real chance to steal this race from the veterans. Alongside NQ is Alejandro Valverde, an incredibly versatile and successful rider in his own right--and a grand tour winner himself. Valverde offers possibly the best super-domestique talent in the race (and is a legitimate alternative for team Movistar should Quintana fail). Quintana will be the contender who benefits the most from the absence of a long ITT, so this year may offer one of the best opportunities the talented young Colombian will ever get to take the win.

All four of this year's top favorites have enjoyed moments of success against their rivals this year, but each has shown chinks in their armor as well. At this point no single rider seems to look like an overwhelming favorite. What this means is that we may be treated with one of the most thrilling grand tour battles in recent memory. Of course, the treacherous first half of the race may, like last year, prevent some of the favorites from getting the opportunity to duke it out in the Pyrenees and Alps, where the winner will surely be decided.

Other possible podium contenders at the 2015 Tour de France include the American Tejay Van Garderen for BMC Racing, Spanish climbing star Joaquim "Purito" Rodriguez of Katusha, Dutchman Bauke Mollema for Trek Factory Racing, and the French duo of Thibaut Pinot of FDJ and Romain Bardet for AG2R. Alejandro Valverde will be working for Quintana, but depending on circumstances, the Spaniard is another possible podium contender himself.

Here is a list of several other big talents who could be vying for high GC positions in Paris:
Rigoberto Uran, Rui Costa, Simon Yates, Richie Porte, Wilco Kelderman, Rafal Majka, Robert Gesink, Andrew Talansky, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, Jakob Fuglsang, Louis Meintjes, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Steven Kruijswijk, Tony Gallopin, Damiano Caruso, Ryder Hesjedal, Warren Barguil, Michele Scarponi, Roman Kreuziger, Tanel Kangert, Alexis Vuillermoz, Leo Konig, Tiago Machado, Giampaolo Caruso, Laurens Ten Dam, Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Julian Arredondo, Rafael Valls, Kristijan Durasek, Sammy Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, Mathias Frank, and Eduardo Sepulveda.


Despite the mountainous focus, the sprinters will not be left out of this year's Tour. The so-called "flat" stages this year come in various shapes and sizes, with a variety of different finishes, such that no individual sprinter stands out as the overall favorite to win the Green Jersey in Paris. A preponderance of Classics-type stages early on, including finishes on the Mur de Huy, the Mur de Bretagne and the cobbled stage 4 to Cambrai, will give the stronger finishers some opportunities to grab points and bonus seconds that could disrupt the pure sprinters from running away with the Maillot Vert.

Mark Cavendish returns as possibly the standout pure sprinter, but he will be challenged by the likes of Peter Sagan, Andrei Greipel, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demare, Sam Bennett, Michael Matthews, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Greg Van Avermaet, Bryan Coquard, and Davide Cimolai. Other fast finishers include Sep Vanmarcke, Michael Valgren, Sylvain Chavanel, Pippo Pozzato, Jens Debuscherre, Matteo Trentin, Zdenek Stybar, Luca Paolini, Simon Gerrans, Nathan Haas, Sebastian Langeveld, Dylan Van Baarle, Julien Simon, Kenneth Vanbilsen, Ian Stannard, Luke Rowe, Jacopo Guarnieri, Daniele Bennati, Daniel Oss, Pierre-Luc Perichon, Danilo Wyss, Reinardt and Jacques Janse Van Rensburg, and Tyler Farrar. Many of these names will be leading out their respective sprint leaders, but, particularly on the classics-type stages, they may find opportunities to shine.

Many route breakdowns have been posted online, so I am going to forgo my usual observations of each particular stage profile. But I have picked apart the route meticulously and the following are some of my predictions for the race:

Final GC:

1. Contador
2. Nibali
3. Quintana
4. Froome
5. Van Garderen
6. Rodriguez
7. Pinot
8. Valverde
9. Bardet
10. Uran
11. Mollema
12. Rui Costa
13. Kelderman
14. Porte
15. Yates


Points Competition:

1. Sagan
2. Kristoff
3. Cavendish
4. Greipel
5. Degenkolb

Tony Martin, stage-one favorite

STAGE 1 Picks:

Considering the extreme lack of individual time trial kms in this 102nd edition of Le Grande Boucle, it may seem surprising that almost all of the world's top TT men will be at the start on Saturday. They have just the one short test to show their stuff, but they will also come in very handy for the GC contenders when their teams have to line up on stage 9 for the team time trial.

Here are my top picks for the opening individual time trial prologue stage on Saturday:

1. Tony Martin
2. Fabian Cancellara
3. Tom Dumoulin
4. Adriano Malori
5. Alex Dowsett
6. Matthias Brandle
7. Chris Froome
8. Rohan Dennis
9. Bob Jungels
10. Wilco Kelderman

The list of TT contenders is long, like the GC contenders, so the outcome is far from sure. Here are several other names of riders who could turn in very good results in the opening TT:
Van Emden, Castroviejo, Kwiatkowski, Porte, Durbridge, Coppel, Elmiger, Cummings, Talansky, Matthews, Barta, Contador, Valverde, Thomas, Boom, Chavanel, Clement, Westra, Fuglsang, Tuft, Vermote, D Caruso, Grivko, De Gendt, Irizar, Oliveira, Kristoff, Boasson Hagen.

I am sure I must have left some out, but already you can see how much competition there will be to determine who gets to wear the first yellow jersey of the race.


The 2015 Tour de France will be broadcast on cable television in the U.S. each day by NBC Sports Network.

Enjoy the race!

2015 Paris-Nice Race Preview

2015 Paris-Nice, the "Race to the Sun" is about to get underway tomorrow, so I'll post this brief "preview"…

Last year's winner, Carlos Betancur, is going to Tirreno-Adriatico instead this year. He is coming off of a terrible 2014, where he spent much of the season out with injuries, and probably would not be ready to defend his title here this year anyway. Betancur's AG2R teammate, Romain Bardet will surely have something to say at the race to the sun...

This year's other top favorites include Richie Porte (Team SKY), Michal Kwiatkowski (Etixx-Quickstep), Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), Rafal Majka (Tinkoff-Saxo), Wilco Kelderman (Lotto-NLJumbo), and Fabio Aru (Astana). Some others to look out for include Rui Costa (Lampre), Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal), Geraint Thomas and Bradley Wiggins (SKY), Benat Intxausti and the brothers Izaguirre (Movistar), Mathias Frank (IAM), Tom Dumoulin and Warren Barguil (Giant-Alpecin). (Barguil has said he will probably favor going for a stage win over the General Classification.)

THE ROUTE:

8 STAGES:

6 Road stages and 2 TTs.

The route is hillier than usual this year, and the Col d'Eze climbing TT returns, on the final stage.

Prologue: 6.7k ITT in Maurepas, flat-ish

Prologue map

Winner: TT specialist, and many are there; Tony Martin, Brad Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Bob Jungels, Tom Dumoulin...the list goes on (Kelderman, Porte, Zoidl, Chavanel, Boom, Kwiatkowski...), and on. All those mentioned have already shown good form this year. I'm going to pick Wiggins.

Prologue profile

Stage 1: 192k FLAT   

Bunch Sprint; Wind could be a factor, causing splits on the roads to Contres...

W: Sprinter. Take your pick. Some of the best there include Kristoff, Boonen, Greipel, Bouhanni, Rojas, Demare, Swift, Haussler, Coquard, Hofland, Degenkolb, Bonifazio, Nizzolo, Gilbert, Matthews, Dumoulin, Howes, Breschel... I like Kristoff.

Stage 2: 172k FLAT   

Bunch Sprint; [same goes, about the wind]

W: Sprinter. How about Bryan Coquard today?

Stage 3. 179k Low, undulating roads on a slightly jagged profile; with three cat-3 climbs, last one comes with 60+k to go; last little bump inside final 10k;

Uphill sprint finish.

Stage 3 profile

W: Classics specialist/Strong uphill sprinter like Degenkolb, Thomas, Matthews, Gilbert, Maybe Grivko, Bouhanni, Rojas, Bozic...or it could be stolen by an ambitious GC hunter like Richie Porte, Wilco Kelderman, Michal Kwiatkowski, or Tom Dumoulin if the big sprinters can't hold on to the finish. I like Degenkolb.

Stage 4: 204k MTF (Mountaintop Finish);

Longest stage, lots of climbing. Two cat-3 climbs in first 60k; three cat-3s and two cat-2s in final 60k; finishes on cat-1 Croix de Chaubouret (10k at 6.7%, max 9.4%; 1201m).

W: Climber. I like Bardet, Majka, Aru, and Van Garderen, in that order.

 

Stage 4 profile

Stage 5: 192.5k Escape succeeds?..

Starts with a cat-1 climb (12.2k at 4.5% - biggest climb of the stage) then down to low elev.; Flat till km120; Then a cat-3 at -67k, and a cat-2 with 45k to go, and a final little cat-3 (the Cote de Buisson, 1.8k at 4.3%), then 8.5k to the finish on a steep, [steeper than stage 3]...

punchy, uphill sprint.

Stage 5 profile

W: The strong sprinters' teams should be able to control this stage from Saint-Etiennes to Rasteau, if they choose to. Another one that looks good for Degenkolb, Matthews or Gilbert on paper; but it could just as easily go to anyone who launches a worthy late attack at the right time. Tony Gallopin probably likes this one. I like Gallopin.

Stage 6:182k Mountains; Good for escape;

Lots of climbing, perfect for a strong breakaway to succeed. The top GC guys may or may not want to contest this one for time gains, then again... Three cat-1s and three cat-2s; final descent to finish off of cat-1 Cote de Peille (6.6k at 6.8%), summit comes with 25k to go, almost all downhill to finish [a 30m-high, 500m-long bump tops out with 1k to go. If not the early one, then a late breakaway will probably succeed. If the GC contenders go all out for this stage, then a good descender could run away from the pack on the long, downhill run in to Nice.

Stage 6 profile

W: Richie Porte, Michal Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa, Tejay Van Garderen, Wilco Kelderman, Nico Roche should be favorites here, but I also like several others including Luis Leon Sanchez, now on the beleaguered Astana team, and he is my pick.

Stage 7: 9.6k uphill ITT Col d'Eze (9.6k at 4.7%; flat 1.2k at top);

 

Richie Porte is my pick for stage 7. Other contenders include Michal Kwiatkowski, Tony Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, JC Peraud, Tom Dumoulin--look for whoever proved to be best on stages 4 and 6. Spilak, Kelderman, Kiserlovski, Bardet, Wiggins, Barguil, Jungels, and some others could also turn in good performances on Col d'Eze. Andrew Talansky would be a natural pick on this stage, but he is beginning his season at PN, and probably doesn't have enough racing kms in his legs to dominate yet.

Ahead of the race, I am picking Richie Porte for the overall win. He is in great form and the route suits him.

Enjoy the race!

TDF Stage 19 Race Report and Stage 20 ITT Preview 2014 Tour De France

Stage 19 Race Report:

Stage 19 on the map

 

208.5k from Maubourguet Pays du Val d'Adour to Bergerac; FLAT.

Weather: Rain and thunderstorms, 68f; Wind ~10mph

164 riders took the start on Friday. The rain seemed to follow the riders through the course.

A 5-man breakaway group escaped by km 15, and built a lead of about 3:30 early on:

Slagter, Gautier, Elmiger, Taaramae, and Gerard.

(All five riders succeeded in making it into multiple breakaways in this race; this was at least Gautier's 5th break (stages 9, 14, 16, 17, and 19).

By km75 the lead had been brought down to about 2:30. The peloton kept the gap at about 2:30 for the next 50k, and then started to reel the break in. Inside of 30k to go, Garmin Sharp's Tom Jelte Slagter attacked and broke away from the peloton. The early escapees were all swept up by the peloton by 20k to go, when Omega's Jan Bakelants attacked from the bunch.

Profile of stage 19; northward

Garmin had more cards to play, clearly intent on making something happen today. Alex Howes attacked, but was soon brought back. Riders fought to be in front for the narrow, technical cat-4 hill that topped out with 13k to go to the finish. The rain fell heavily at times, probably dissuading more attackers.

Recidivist escapees: Gautier, Elmiger and Taaramae (R to L)

With about 13.5k to go, another Garmin rider, Navardauskas attacked and bridged up to his teammate Slagter, who still led the race about 10 or 15 seconds up the road. Slagter led Navardauskas over the KOM line at the top of the Côte de Montbazillac (1.3k at 7.6%), and then Navardauskas pushed on alone.

Navardauskas clung to a 12-second lead with 11k to go, but then started to gradually build it up until it leveled out between 22 and 24 seconds with about 7k left to the finish. Navardauskas slogged through heavy downpours, and as he crossed the Dordogne River with about 3k to go, the chasing peloton was gaining ground on him again.

Just inside of 3k to go, the peloton was chasing the Garmin rider through Bergerac, when a crash near the front of the peloton created a big pile-up. Many big names were involved, including Peter Sagan, Andre Greipel, Frank Schleck, Greg Van Avermaet, Romain Bardet, Leopold König, and more. Later Sagan apologized and took responsibility for the carnage, saying, "I crashed first". Known for his excellent bike-handling skills, Sagan was a big favorite to win on today's technical run-in.

The Tour's biggest fan watched the race go by today

A group of about 15 riders survived to chase after Navardauskas. They were at + :13 as the strong Lithuanian sped under the flamme rouge.

Navardauskas rounded a 90-degree left turn onto the soaked finish straight. He looked behind to see the chase group coming fast, but his lead was sufficient.

He coasted over the line first, taking a much-appreciated win for his hard-working Garmin teammates.

John Degenkolb won the sprint for second, ahead of Alexander Kristoff and Mark Renshaw.

Tom Jelte Slagter lit up the race for Garmin

It was a great attack and win for the Lithuanian Navardauskas, but a rather disappointing finish otherwise, since we were denied a proper bunch sprint.  Fortunately for all those involved, the crash occurred inside of 3k to go, so everybody there got the same time as the sprint group. Jack Bauer appeared to have suffered the worst from the crash, but is reported to be ok, and was able to take solace in the fact that his teammate scored the win.

Garmin got a win from Ramunas Navardauskas

STAGE 20 PREVIEW:

Tomorrow is the big 54k individual time trial. The standings will certainly get a shakeup, and then we will find out what the final 2014 Tour De France podium will look like. The course is hilly, but without any major climbs. The sheer length of it will destroy some riders hopes of a high finish, and we may see some surprise results.

Stage 20 ITT profile

 

I expect Nibali, Peraud, Valverde, and Van Garderen will do well. The other top GC contenders will have to throw every last ounce of their energy into the stage 20 ITT. Thibaut Pinot should be especially worried about losing his podium position.

The strong time trialists outside of the top GC contention who I expect to excel on Saturday include Tom Dumoulin of Giant-Shimano and Sylvain Chavanel of IAM. Chavanel has expressed the desire to "do something special" in the TT.

Other typically good TT-ers like Richie Porte and Michal Kwiatkowski are less of a sure bet, as they both showed weakness in the mountains. But put those guys in a skinsuit and an aero helmet, and you usually get fireworks. 

Compatriots JC Peraud and Thibaut Pinot

Some of the veteran TT-ers like Lieuwe Westra, Mick Rogers, and Vasil Kiryienka may be able to come up with decent performances. Kiryienka and Rogers particularly showed a lot of strength in the mountains.

Orica's Luke Durbridge and Svein Tuft would love to put on good performances tomorrow, and look out for Ion Izaguirre, Jan Barta, Maciej Bodnar, and Geraint Thomas. Any of them could be capable of a good show in the race of truth.

MY PICKS:

I think this course will suit JC Peraud very well, as well as Tom Dumoulin and Ion Izaguirre. In top form I would like Kwiatkowski, Porte, and Valverde for this course, but I'm not sure how their legs will be after the Pyrenees. Valverde will fight hard for a podium finish however, so I would still say he is a good pick.

I think Tony Martin means "turbo boosted" in German

But at the end of the day, we are talking about a time trial; and you can't have a TT and not talk about the German locomotive, Tony Martin. I wouldn't bet on him finishing worse than second, and in this case, I am picking him for the win.

It will all be decided tomorrow...

...Enjoy the race!

TDF Stage 18 Race Report and Results 2014 Tour De France

STAGE 18 REPORT:

Stage 18 on the map

145.5k from Pau to Hautacam; Hi mtns; summit finish;

Weather: Mostly sunny; 76f at low elevation, and about 60f up at the finish; [Thunderstorms were forecast for later in the day, but they never came.]

Abandoned: Heinrich Haussler (stomach bug)

The 2014 Tour De France raced its last day in the mountains today, conquering the Hors Categoie Pyrenean climbs of the famed Tourmalet, and the perhaps infamous Hautacam. The Tourmalet is a classic Tour big-mountain favorite, and is the highest pass in the Pyrenees at 2115 meters. Among this year's riders, men who have led the race over the 17k-long climb include Thomas Voeckler, Jeremy Roy and Sylvain Chavanel. The winners on the Hautacam however, now look like a who's who of doped cyclists. Leaving their names aside for now, we can only hope and trust that today's winner will not have his name one day expunged from the record books.

Vincenzo Nibali may look unbeatable, but a great battle for the overall podium positions and the king of the mountains jersey would be on the menu for stage 18...

Stage 18 profile; the last of the mountains

The peloton were fortunate to race on dry roads under sunny skies all day, despite the predicted afternoon thunderstorms. A 20-rider break formed early, and built a four-minute lead...

TDF Stage 17 Race Report and Stage 18 Preview 2014 Tour De France

STAGE 17 REPORT:

 

Stage 17 on the map

124.5K From Saint-Gaudens to Pla d'Adet

Weather: Sunny, 80 f; light wind

The 17th stage of the 2014 Tour De France was dubbed the queen stage of the race. It began with about 50k of relatively flat roads.  The final 75k featured virtually no flat roads. What it did feature were four big mountains for the peloton to climb. First, three category-1 climbs: the 1292-meter high Col du Portillon, the 1569m Col de Peyresourde, the 1580m Col de Val Louron Azet; and then came the finish, 1654m up on top of the Hors Categorie Pla d'Adet.

An 8-man break got away early, without the top mountain jersey contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez tried, but failed to get into the break again.  As a result, his Katusha team chased hard to try and bridge the gap to the leaders before they reached the mountains.

Stage 17 profile, with four big Pyrenean climbs

The 8 escapees were: Gautier, Slagter, Elmiger, Arashiro, Edet, Kadri, Voigt, and Paulinho. They held a lead of one minute by the intermediate sprint point at km 31. Kadri took the INT ahead of Elmiger and Paulinho...

TDF Stage 16 Race Report and Stage 17 Preview 2014 TOUR DE FRANCE

STAGE 16 REPORT:

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Stage 16 on the map

 After the transfer west, from Nimes to Carcasonne, the riders enjoyed the final rest day on Monday. Today the peloton headed out of Carcasonne and into the Pyrenees for the longest stage of the race. 237.5 kilometers From Carcasonne to Bagneres-de-Luchon, featuring the hors categorie climb of the Port de Bales late in the stage. The finish line comes just after the fast 20k descent off the big mountain.

The weather was clear and sunny for the riders, as they prepared for a long day in the saddle. Everybody wondered who would benefit and who would suffer after the rest day. Simon Yates of OGE was a non-starter, as was World Champion Rui Costa, who is suffering from pneumonia. 

 Rafal Majka of Tinkoff Saxo grabbed the first category-4 climb at km25. The single KOM point was all he needed to take the lead away from Joaquim Rodriguez in the king of the mountains competition.

Stage 16 profile; into the Pyrenees

Various breakaway attempts failed, until after almost two hours, 21 riders broke free to form the day's main break. They were:

Kwiatkowski, Bakelants, Voeckler, Gautier, Reza, Albasini, Keukeleire, Rogers, Gallopin, Serpa, Izaguirre, Van Avermaet, Slagter, Roy, Montaguti, S. Dumoulin, Delaplace, Kiryienka, Vachon, Eisel, and Kluge.

The highest placed rider in the break was Kwiatkowski, who came into the stage in 16th place, down 19:24 to the overall race leader, Vincenzo Nibali. Europcar's Thomas Voeckler had won here in Luchon twice before: on stage 16 of the 2012 Tour De France, and on his way to winning the 2013 Route du Sud, so it was no surprise to see him make the break.

TDF STAGE 14 PREVIEW 2014 TOUR DE FRANCE

Stage 14 on Saturday will look something like Friday's, only tougher. At 177k, it is shorter than stage 13, but has a lot of climbing. Most of the stage goes uphill, except for a very few flat sections, like the approximately 10k flat around La Paute and Bourg-d'Oisans. That's where the intermediate sprint point is located, just about 40k into the stage. We'll see some action there. Sagan would have a better chance than most of the sprinters at capitalizing on that INT.

The treacherous trio on stage 14

Bourg-d'Oisans is a launch pad for some epic mountains, Like Alpe d'Huez, The Col de la Croix de Fer and Les Deux Alpes. Stage 14 will make it's way out of Bourg-d'Oisans skipping Huez, and head east. Then the peloton go up, up, and more up, to the first KOM summit of the day: the 34k-long, category-1 Col du Lautaret. The first two-thirds is easier than the last 10k or 11k, and it never gets really steep at all, but it's a long time to be going up, and it will put some hurt into a lot of legs that will have two more big, bad climbs still ahead of them.

The Lautaret tops out at about 2058 meters, the highest point the race has seen so far. Then comes the long descent that leads to the second challenge of the day: The Hors Categorie Col d'Izoard. This beautiful climb is a Tour favorite--and one of mine as well. At 2360 meters of elevation (or about 7740 feet) it is the highest point in the 2014 Tour. It's characteristic serpentine switchbacks and distinctive exposed summit has become somewhat emblematic as a French Alp Tour de France climb.

Profile of the Col d'Izoard

The Col d'Izoard is officially 19k at 6%. It has a couple of brief respites in the first half, but the final 9k offer no breaks, and rise fairly steadily at grades of between 7.5% and 9% most of the way. The first rider over the summit wins the " Souvenir Henri Desgrange" prize, in honor of the father of the Tour De France. I think it usually comes with 5000 Euros or so.

Then a long descent to the final climb of the day: The cat-1 Risoul climb. This is the Risoul's first time as a finish climb in the Tour De France. It runs 12.6k and averages 6.9%. The summit and finish line are at 1855 meters up, and it has about an 880m drop.

If you've been doing the math, you see that the categorized climbs on Saturday's stage 14 add up to over 65k of climbing. There is even more climbing than that, but that's just the measured ones. The first 82 kilometers are almost entirely uphill, as you can see in the profile, so it will be a war of attrition out there tomorrow.  The riders will also have to go through some severe weather changes as they climb through the heat, up to the cold alpine climate above the treeline, and down, and up again and again. With bronchial infections going around the peloton, we will probably see some more riders getting sick, and maybe dropping out. That cold air can get to ya.

Profile of the final climb, and new finish

MY PICKS:

Well, I dropped the ball on Porte today, but pretty much everything and everyone else I mentioned and predicted about the stage came true. [I scored very high in my cycling fantasy games!] I even said that Majka could have a go, and sure enough, he made his moves and finished the stage in 2nd place! He had been sort of anonymous and unimpressive in the peloton the first two weeks. Usually a great talent in the hills (He finished this year's Giro d'Italia in sixth place overall), I think that--with or without Alberto Contador--Tinkoff Saxo planned to save Majka for the big mountains. I think I recall in 2012, in the Vuelta a España, Team Movistar saving the young Colombian Nairo Quintana until very late in the game, to become Valverde's top lieutenant in the high mountains.

Rafal Majka follows Leopold Konig on stage 13

So, what about today's picks?

Picking Nibali would be too easy. In fact, maybe the real question should be how much is Nibali going to win by? He would certainly love to put another minute or two in his pocket before the race hits the Pyrenees...

Tejay, Valverde, Pinot, Konig and Bardet have been great in the mountains. They all need to attack Nibali, but who can beat him across the line at this point?

I want to say Pinot or Valverde or Van Garderen, but they are all a step behind NIbali right now.

So, I will pick Joaquim Rodriguez to win from the break.

Long[er] shot pick: Mikel Nieve from SKY. He didn't finish so well on Friday on the Chamrousse, but SKY may want to make a statement after what happened to their first replacement leader. Give Nieve a long leash, and he just might pull it off.

I would not be surprised to see Thomas Voeckler and Purito Rodriguez doing their best to get into a breakaway, and chase those mountain points; and the summit finishes all get double points, so that's incentive to go for the win, too.

There you go.

Enjoy the race!