brief update...

Sorry I haven't been blogging much lately. So much going on. But I have been following every race all season, and will at least post previews for the Grand Tours (just about 2 weeks until the Giro d'Italia!) I already have all 3 GT's assessed and predictions ready.
Hope you enjoyed the Classics!

2015 Paris-Nice Race Wrap

Richie Porte in the Col d'Eze TT

Congratulations to 2015 Paris-Nice winner Richie Porte! The Tasmanian talent who is preparing to lead Team SKY at the Giro d'Italia later this spring, won the final time trial stage up the Col d'Eze. The 1:39 he gained on yellow jersey wearer Tony Gallopin was enough to propel Porte to the top of the final General Classification. Michal Kwiatkowski and Simon Spilak rounded out the rest of the podium, both finishing thirty seconds off the winning time.

Tony Gallopin did not have a good day on the mountain, and mentioned after the stage that he was not happy with having chosen to ride the timed climb so much in the tri-bar position.  Gallopin lost the race lead he had grabbed on yesterday's sixth stage into Nice, coming in 1:39 behind Porte in the TT, and wound up finishing just 6th on GC. Porte's teammate Geraint Thomas was pushed off the podium over the last two stages, and ended the race fifth overall. Jakob Fuglsang also underperformed, sliding from fifth overall to seventh.

French hope, Tony Gallopin on the move in stage 6

 

Escape artist and KOM winner, Thomas De Gendt

Michael Matthews of Orica GreenEDGE managed to hold on and win the points jersey he first grabbed with his win on stage 3. Thomas De Gendt of the Lotto Soudal team won the King of the Mountains jersey by making the break three consecutive days, including the very mountainous fourth and sixth stages. While he was not able to defend the overall race lead he had held earlier, Michal Kwiatkowski of Etixx-Quickstep did walk away with the white, best young rider's jersey.

The stage winners from this 2015 edition of the Race to the Sun were:

Prologue TT: Michal Kwiatkowski (EQS)

Stage 1: Alexander Kristoff {Katusha}

Stage 2: Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal)

Stage 3: Michael Matthews (OGE)

Stage 4: Richie Porte (SKY)

Stage 5: Davide Cimolai (Lampre)

Stage 6: Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal)

Stage 7: Richie Porte (SKY)

The final podium (L to R): Kwiatkowski, Porte, and Spilak

Final Overall Standings:

1. Richie Porte  (SKY)         29:10:41

2. Michal Kwiatkowski  (EQS)  + :30

3. Simon Spilak  (KAT)                ST

4. Rui Costa  (LAM)   

5. Geraint Thomas  (SKY)         :41

6. Tony Gallopin  (LTS)           1:03

7. Jakob Fuglsang  (AST)         1:05

8. Rafal Valls Ferri  (LAM)      1:24

9. Gorka Izaguirre  (MOV)      1:38

10. Tim Wellens  (LTS)            2:18

Bragging Rights in Fantasy Cycling Leagues

Okay, bragging time. In case you need a reason to have any faith in my picks for race winners, I am pleased to give you one. Here are the results of today's fourth stage of Paris-Nice on one of the cycling fantasy leagues I play in. The first image shows the 12 riders I picked to finish high in today's mountaintop finish on the Croix de Chaubouret. The second image shows the results of the leagues' 397 players today. My team is named "bkSuperbas", after the old Brooklyn baseball club.

Considering the field of climbers at the race, and his recent performances, I don't think anyone would fault me for picking Kelderman, he just didn't quite have it today. And I'm guessing everyone had Majka as a pick today. The talented Polish climber, and last year's Vuelta a España King of the Mountains, finished in 4th place overall at the tour of Oman a few weeks ago, after finishing 4th on the queen stage up Green Mountain.

Can I  pick 'em, or what?

OK, done bragging.
Hope you're enjoying the race!

2015 TIRRENO-ADRIATICO RACE PREVIEW with FAVORITES and STAGE PROFILES

2015 TIRRENO-ADRIATICO

From Wed. March 11 to Tue. March 17, 2015

The 2015 edition of the always-thrilling Tirreno-Adriatico World Tour stage race begins on Wednesday, and already the race has seen major changes. The third WT stage race of 2015 was to be the first showdown between the four top Tour De France favorites: Chris Froome of Team SKY, Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo Bank, Vincenzo Nibali of Astana, and Nairo Quintana of Team Movistar. On Monday, Team SKY announced that their team leader and race favorite, Chris Froome, would be pulled from the startlist due to a chest infection. So that four-way showdown will have to wait. Last month, Nairo Quintana was forced to miss the start at the Vuelta a Andalucia, after crashing in the Colombian National Championships. That race was supposed to have been the first meeting between the Colombian and Contador and Froome. Perhaps the deferred suspense will build toward an even more thrilling Tour De France, this July.

In addition to the TA race's GC favorite pulling out, the top sprinter, Marcel Kittel of Giant-Alpecin has been scratched as well. As has another in-form sprinter, Tom Van Asbroeck of the Lotto-Jumbo team. Plenty of talent remains on the roster however, to contest the seven stages that stretch from sea to sea, across the breadth of Italy.

Alberto Contador comes back to defend his 2014 T-A win

The other big change is the removal of the opening stage 22k team time trial. Heavy downpours and high winds are to blame for the organizers' opting to change the stage to a short prologue. The opening stage prologue will be a quick 5.7k individual TT now.

Favorites for the overall General Classification include the aforementioned Contador, Nibali, and Quintana, but two other riders who might have something to say about the GC this week include Rigoberto Uran (Etixx-Quickstep) and Bauke Mollema (Trek Factory Racing). Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R) and Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) might also be considered typical favorites in a climber-friendly race, but the two book-end time trial stages could create some challenging time deficits for the pure climbers to overcome.

A few other riders to keep an eye on to contest the top-ten on GC are: Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Maxim Monfort (Lotto-Soudal), Leo Konig and Wout Poels (SKY), Julien Arredondo (TFR), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), Daniel Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso (KAT), Javier Moreno (Movistar), Damiano Caruso (BMC), Przemislaw Niemiec (Lampre), Louis Meintjes (MTN Qhubeka), Ryder Hesjedal and Dan Martin (Team Cannondale-Garmin), and Adam Yates (Orica-GreenEDGE).

The race also includes three sprint stages, though one will be an uphill sprint finish; a mountainous stage 4 that ends with an uphill sprint after a 6k descent; the mountaintop finish on stage 5 will provide the climbers with their best opportunity to gain time they may lose in the TTs. The 194k stage 5 finishes on top of the category-1 Termenillo (16k at 7.3%). The final stage is a pan-flat 10k Individual Time Trial.

Overall race profile of the 2015 Tirreno-Adriatico, updated

Each sprinter will be a little more secure with his chances on the fast flat finishes with the absence of Marcel Kittel. The standout marquis names remaining are Mark Cavendish (EQS) and Peter Sagan (TSB). Other notable contenders for the flat sprints include Elia Viviani, Ian Stannard, Luka Mezgec, Mateo Pelucchi, Sam Bennett, Pim Ligthart, Sacha Modolo, Mark Renshaw, Nicola Ruffoni, Max Richeze, Lloyd Mondory*, and Fran Ventoso.

Greg Van Avermaet and Daniel Oss of BMC are among the fast finishers who can excel on the tougher, uphill sprint-finish. So are Nikki Terpstra, Zdenek Stybar, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Nathan Haas, Sep Vanmarcke, Pipo Pozzato, Simon Geschke, Jens Debusschere, Jurgen Roelandts, Luca Paolini, Jelle Vanendert, Mathieu Ladagnous, and Daniele Bennati. If Peter Sagan doesn't start to show better results after this race, it may be time to start worrying. The big Classics races he is targeting are right around the corner...

*Lloyd Mondory returned a positive out-of-competition test for EPO in February, so he is scratched.

STATS/NOTES:

7 stages: 5 road, 1 TTT, 2 short ITTs (2 days prior to start, the race swaps out the opening TTT for a prolgue TT, citing weather issues).

22 eight-man teams: all 18 WT teams, plus Bardiani, Bora-Argon 18, Team Colombia, and MTN-Qhubeka.

PARCOURS:

Stage 1: 5.7k Prologue ITT;   22.7k pan-flat TTT.

Stage 2: 153k from Camaiore to Cascina; Flat-ish; Bunch sprint finish.

 

Stage 3: 203k from Cascino to Arezzo; Flat-ish; Punchy, uphill sprint finish [900m at 5% (11% max at bottom)].

Final kms of stage 3

Stage 4: 218k from Indicatore to Castelraimondo; [Good for escape];

Starts with a short hill at about km10, then flat for 60k; then low rolling until km139; then two big climbs: the Poggio San Romualdo (10k at 7%), and Monte San Vicino (11.5k at 7.1%; tops out at km182, 26k to the finish; 

The San Vicino climb profile, stage 4

After the San Vicino descent, it's up and down to the final categorized climb, which is ridden twice. The Crispiero climb is a steep 3k, with a 15% max near the top. The first ascent tops out with about 19k to go, before the descent, and second ascent. The second and final climb tops out with about 6.25k to go, mostly downhill, until the final few hundred meters uphill to the finish line in Castelraimondo.

The stage-4 finish circuit

Stage 5: 194k MTF from Esanatoglia to the cat-1 Terminillo (up to 1675m up the 2216m-high ski mountain; 16k long at 7.25% average grade).

It's a pretty steady 7-8% until the final km, which flattens out on top. Three other categorized climbs along the way.

Stage 5 profile

The Terminillo, stage 5 summit finish

Stage 6: 210k mostly flat; Bunch sprint, possibly reduced;

Three little bumps in first 150k (just 1 cat'd climb, around km131 (around 5k, maybe around 5%?)). Final 68k mostly flat, 2 laps of a 14.4k circuit, final 4k are pan-flat.

Stage 6 profile

The final TT has very few corners

Stage 7: Pan flat 10k ITT;

Not very technical, very few turns. Almost straight out and back, will favor power TT guys. Malori, Durbridge, and Cancellara should excel.

Overall Route Breakdown:

2 bunch sprints (stages 2 and 6)

1 uphill sprint (stage 3)

1 MTF (stage 5)

1 climby classics/escapee stage (stage 4)

1 long-ish TTT (stage 1)*

2 short, flat ITTs (stages 1, 7)

Assessment: 

The opening TTT is important; the winner will probably hold the leader's jersey until stage 4 or 5. The two strongest TTT teams on paper look like OGE (Best GC hope: Yates) and TFR (Mollema). EQS, SKY, TCS, MOV, and AST are capable of limiting time losses in the TTT for their leaders, Uran, Froome, Contador, Quintana and Nibali, respectively. Purito, Pinot, Pozzovivo and Rolland may not be so lucky.

*Stage 1 TTT replaced by ITT Prologue.

Stage 5 is the queen stage with the cat-1 MTF.

Categorized climbs in the 2015 Tirreno-Adriatico

PREDICTIONS:

OVERALL GC:

1. Contador  2. Uran  3. Nibali  4. Quintana  5. Mollema  6. Pozzovivo  7. Caruso  8. Monfort  9. Moreno  10. Yates  11. Purito  12. Van Den Broecke

My pick for the overall win: ALBERTO CONTADOR.

Backup pick: Rigo URAN.

Points Jersey pick: Peter SAGAN.

Enjoy the race!

2015 Paris-Nice Race Preview

2015 Paris-Nice, the "Race to the Sun" is about to get underway tomorrow, so I'll post this brief "preview"…

Last year's winner, Carlos Betancur, is going to Tirreno-Adriatico instead this year. He is coming off of a terrible 2014, where he spent much of the season out with injuries, and probably would not be ready to defend his title here this year anyway. Betancur's AG2R teammate, Romain Bardet will surely have something to say at the race to the sun...

This year's other top favorites include Richie Porte (Team SKY), Michal Kwiatkowski (Etixx-Quickstep), Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), Rafal Majka (Tinkoff-Saxo), Wilco Kelderman (Lotto-NLJumbo), and Fabio Aru (Astana). Some others to look out for include Rui Costa (Lampre), Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal), Geraint Thomas and Bradley Wiggins (SKY), Benat Intxausti and the brothers Izaguirre (Movistar), Mathias Frank (IAM), Tom Dumoulin and Warren Barguil (Giant-Alpecin). (Barguil has said he will probably favor going for a stage win over the General Classification.)

THE ROUTE:

8 STAGES:

6 Road stages and 2 TTs.

The route is hillier than usual this year, and the Col d'Eze climbing TT returns, on the final stage.

Prologue: 6.7k ITT in Maurepas, flat-ish

Prologue map

Winner: TT specialist, and many are there; Tony Martin, Brad Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Bob Jungels, Tom Dumoulin...the list goes on (Kelderman, Porte, Zoidl, Chavanel, Boom, Kwiatkowski...), and on. All those mentioned have already shown good form this year. I'm going to pick Wiggins.

Prologue profile

Stage 1: 192k FLAT   

Bunch Sprint; Wind could be a factor, causing splits on the roads to Contres...

W: Sprinter. Take your pick. Some of the best there include Kristoff, Boonen, Greipel, Bouhanni, Rojas, Demare, Swift, Haussler, Coquard, Hofland, Degenkolb, Bonifazio, Nizzolo, Gilbert, Matthews, Dumoulin, Howes, Breschel... I like Kristoff.

Stage 2: 172k FLAT   

Bunch Sprint; [same goes, about the wind]

W: Sprinter. How about Bryan Coquard today?

Stage 3. 179k Low, undulating roads on a slightly jagged profile; with three cat-3 climbs, last one comes with 60+k to go; last little bump inside final 10k;

Uphill sprint finish.

Stage 3 profile

W: Classics specialist/Strong uphill sprinter like Degenkolb, Thomas, Matthews, Gilbert, Maybe Grivko, Bouhanni, Rojas, Bozic...or it could be stolen by an ambitious GC hunter like Richie Porte, Wilco Kelderman, Michal Kwiatkowski, or Tom Dumoulin if the big sprinters can't hold on to the finish. I like Degenkolb.

Stage 4: 204k MTF (Mountaintop Finish);

Longest stage, lots of climbing. Two cat-3 climbs in first 60k; three cat-3s and two cat-2s in final 60k; finishes on cat-1 Croix de Chaubouret (10k at 6.7%, max 9.4%; 1201m).

W: Climber. I like Bardet, Majka, Aru, and Van Garderen, in that order.

 

Stage 4 profile

Stage 5: 192.5k Escape succeeds?..

Starts with a cat-1 climb (12.2k at 4.5% - biggest climb of the stage) then down to low elev.; Flat till km120; Then a cat-3 at -67k, and a cat-2 with 45k to go, and a final little cat-3 (the Cote de Buisson, 1.8k at 4.3%), then 8.5k to the finish on a steep, [steeper than stage 3]...

punchy, uphill sprint.

Stage 5 profile

W: The strong sprinters' teams should be able to control this stage from Saint-Etiennes to Rasteau, if they choose to. Another one that looks good for Degenkolb, Matthews or Gilbert on paper; but it could just as easily go to anyone who launches a worthy late attack at the right time. Tony Gallopin probably likes this one. I like Gallopin.

Stage 6:182k Mountains; Good for escape;

Lots of climbing, perfect for a strong breakaway to succeed. The top GC guys may or may not want to contest this one for time gains, then again... Three cat-1s and three cat-2s; final descent to finish off of cat-1 Cote de Peille (6.6k at 6.8%), summit comes with 25k to go, almost all downhill to finish [a 30m-high, 500m-long bump tops out with 1k to go. If not the early one, then a late breakaway will probably succeed. If the GC contenders go all out for this stage, then a good descender could run away from the pack on the long, downhill run in to Nice.

Stage 6 profile

W: Richie Porte, Michal Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa, Tejay Van Garderen, Wilco Kelderman, Nico Roche should be favorites here, but I also like several others including Luis Leon Sanchez, now on the beleaguered Astana team, and he is my pick.

Stage 7: 9.6k uphill ITT Col d'Eze (9.6k at 4.7%; flat 1.2k at top);

 

Richie Porte is my pick for stage 7. Other contenders include Michal Kwiatkowski, Tony Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, JC Peraud, Tom Dumoulin--look for whoever proved to be best on stages 4 and 6. Spilak, Kelderman, Kiserlovski, Bardet, Wiggins, Barguil, Jungels, and some others could also turn in good performances on Col d'Eze. Andrew Talansky would be a natural pick on this stage, but he is beginning his season at PN, and probably doesn't have enough racing kms in his legs to dominate yet.

Ahead of the race, I am picking Richie Porte for the overall win. He is in great form and the route suits him.

Enjoy the race!