By the end of stage six of
the Tour De France last year, Mark Cavendish had already won a stage, André
Greipel had won two stages, and Peter Sagan had won three. So far this year,
none of them has tasted victory yet.
Sagan has the green jersey,
but he has not yet crossed a finish line first. Stage 5 to Marseilles tomorrow
gives the Slovakian speedster—and the other fast men--another opportunity.
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| Stage 5 Profile |
Stage 5 is another rolling
route similar to stage 3, except for two main, possibly offsetting differences:
its climbs are a little less demanding, and the stage is 83 kilometers longer
(or 57% longer). At over 228 kms,
stage 5 is the second longest of the race. However, there is so much undulation throughout the route
that the fast men who want to force a bunch sprint will have to chase very hard
to keep up with a determined breakaway.
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| The westerly stage 5 route to Marseilles |
None of the four categorized
climbs is above a cat-3, and that one, the first, at km22, is only 1.4k long.
The other three are cat-4’s, none of which is steep enough to cause much damage.
228 kms is a long time for a break group to hold off the peloton, but a number
of possible attack sites exist on the course, and a late break could
potentially succeed.
After the last cat-4 there
is an uncategorized climb that tops out about 12.5k from the finish. The
descent of that hill may be a good place for a bold attack to get away. If a
charging peloton are not too far behind any escapees in the last 20k or so,
then whatever sprinters make that group will be likely to have their bunch
sprint finish.
Weather could become a
factor on Wednesday. The temperature is expected to be about the same, but I
read a 40% chance of showers is expected for the start town of Cagnes-sur-Mer;
although the finish in Marseilles only expects partly cloudy skies. If those
rolling roads are wet they could cause some unfortunate crashes. Headwinds are
also going to trouble escapees in the final few kilometers.
PICKS:
The lack of any “real”
climbs leads me to think that the sprinters will force the bunch sprint in the
end. A few may not be able to keep up, but I wouldn’t bet against any of the
top names. I like Sagan again, and
he’ll be gunning for a win after two consecutive second places on stages 2 and
3. But since I picked him on both of those stages, I will go with someone else.
Cavendish
and Greipel are both reasonable
picks, of course. Julien Simon of
the wildcard Sojasun team and Daryl Impey
of the on-fire Orica GreenEdge team have been looking very stage hungry, as
have JJ Rojas (Movistar), Juan
Antonio Flecha (Vacansoleil), and
Francesco Gavazzi (Astana). I would
not be surprised if Lars Boom tries
something on Wednesday, but I am going to pick Team Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen.
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