TDF STAGE 14 PREVIEW 2014 TOUR DE FRANCE

Stage 14 on Saturday will look something like Friday's, only tougher. At 177k, it is shorter than stage 13, but has a lot of climbing. Most of the stage goes uphill, except for a very few flat sections, like the approximately 10k flat around La Paute and Bourg-d'Oisans. That's where the intermediate sprint point is located, just about 40k into the stage. We'll see some action there. Sagan would have a better chance than most of the sprinters at capitalizing on that INT.

The treacherous trio on stage 14

Bourg-d'Oisans is a launch pad for some epic mountains, Like Alpe d'Huez, The Col de la Croix de Fer and Les Deux Alpes. Stage 14 will make it's way out of Bourg-d'Oisans skipping Huez, and head east. Then the peloton go up, up, and more up, to the first KOM summit of the day: the 34k-long, category-1 Col du Lautaret. The first two-thirds is easier than the last 10k or 11k, and it never gets really steep at all, but it's a long time to be going up, and it will put some hurt into a lot of legs that will have two more big, bad climbs still ahead of them.

The Lautaret tops out at about 2058 meters, the highest point the race has seen so far. Then comes the long descent that leads to the second challenge of the day: The Hors Categorie Col d'Izoard. This beautiful climb is a Tour favorite--and one of mine as well. At 2360 meters of elevation (or about 7740 feet) it is the highest point in the 2014 Tour. It's characteristic serpentine switchbacks and distinctive exposed summit has become somewhat emblematic as a French Alp Tour de France climb.

Profile of the Col d'Izoard

The Col d'Izoard is officially 19k at 6%. It has a couple of brief respites in the first half, but the final 9k offer no breaks, and rise fairly steadily at grades of between 7.5% and 9% most of the way. The first rider over the summit wins the " Souvenir Henri Desgrange" prize, in honor of the father of the Tour De France. I think it usually comes with 5000 Euros or so.

Then a long descent to the final climb of the day: The cat-1 Risoul climb. This is the Risoul's first time as a finish climb in the Tour De France. It runs 12.6k and averages 6.9%. The summit and finish line are at 1855 meters up, and it has about an 880m drop.

If you've been doing the math, you see that the categorized climbs on Saturday's stage 14 add up to over 65k of climbing. There is even more climbing than that, but that's just the measured ones. The first 82 kilometers are almost entirely uphill, as you can see in the profile, so it will be a war of attrition out there tomorrow.  The riders will also have to go through some severe weather changes as they climb through the heat, up to the cold alpine climate above the treeline, and down, and up again and again. With bronchial infections going around the peloton, we will probably see some more riders getting sick, and maybe dropping out. That cold air can get to ya.

Profile of the final climb, and new finish

MY PICKS:

Well, I dropped the ball on Porte today, but pretty much everything and everyone else I mentioned and predicted about the stage came true. [I scored very high in my cycling fantasy games!] I even said that Majka could have a go, and sure enough, he made his moves and finished the stage in 2nd place! He had been sort of anonymous and unimpressive in the peloton the first two weeks. Usually a great talent in the hills (He finished this year's Giro d'Italia in sixth place overall), I think that--with or without Alberto Contador--Tinkoff Saxo planned to save Majka for the big mountains. I think I recall in 2012, in the Vuelta a España, Team Movistar saving the young Colombian Nairo Quintana until very late in the game, to become Valverde's top lieutenant in the high mountains.

Rafal Majka follows Leopold Konig on stage 13

So, what about today's picks?

Picking Nibali would be too easy. In fact, maybe the real question should be how much is Nibali going to win by? He would certainly love to put another minute or two in his pocket before the race hits the Pyrenees...

Tejay, Valverde, Pinot, Konig and Bardet have been great in the mountains. They all need to attack Nibali, but who can beat him across the line at this point?

I want to say Pinot or Valverde or Van Garderen, but they are all a step behind NIbali right now.

So, I will pick Joaquim Rodriguez to win from the break.

Long[er] shot pick: Mikel Nieve from SKY. He didn't finish so well on Friday on the Chamrousse, but SKY may want to make a statement after what happened to their first replacement leader. Give Nieve a long leash, and he just might pull it off.

I would not be surprised to see Thomas Voeckler and Purito Rodriguez doing their best to get into a breakaway, and chase those mountain points; and the summit finishes all get double points, so that's incentive to go for the win, too.

There you go.

Enjoy the race!

Stage 11 Preview 2014 Tour De France

Stage 11 Preview 2014 Tour de France

187.5k from Besancon to Oyonnax; rolling.

Moving south, from the Vosges to the Jura...

*Fabian Cancellara has withdrawn from the race to get some rest before he gets on with training for the World Championships in September.

Stage 11 profile

 

A few small hills toward the back end of the stage on Wednesday may encourage some attacks, but many sprinters could be around to contest the finish if they choose to chase down the breaks. There is a 15-k descent to the finish in Oyonnax, so expect a fast and furious race at the end, with stage hunters trying to keep the sprinters' teams at bay. I expect to see Peter Sagan at the finish, ready to add more points to his lead in the green jersey competition. Arnaud Demare (FDJ) is another sprinter who could eat up that finish if he's got the legs.

The rolling 40k that precede the final 15k, could be ideal for riders like Rui Costa or Alejandro Valverde to try and get away from the other GC contenders and maybe gain some time, but it is more likely that the GC contenders will let the fast men duke this one out. The GC guys have the summit finishes on stages 13 and 14 to think about. Also, race leader Vincenzo Nibali would not be easy to drop on this parcours.

Assuming the sprint teams do not control the race on Wednesday, several talented and ambitious riders could have a go at the stage win:

Both Tom (Giant-Shimano) and Samuel Dumoulin (AG2R) could be eyeing this stage. I am also looking at JJ Rojas of Movistar, Greg Van Avermaet and Daniel Oss of BMC, Sylvain Chavanel of the pro-conti IAM team, and Lars Boom (who won already, on the demanding cobbled stage 5 course) and Sep Vanmarcke of the Dutch Belkin team.

Just for kicks, here is a list of other candidates, by team, whom I think could be eyeing this stage:

Katusha have options with Porsev and Paolini if Kristoff doesn't make it to contest the sprint finish;

Big, amiable Jens Voigt of the Trek team, is not a bad bet.  I'd like to see Jensie throw caution to the wind again, and have a try at tomorrow's course.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Daniele Bennati, Matteo Tosatto, or Michael Morkov try to get into the break for Tinkoff-Saxo. They will want to be looking for new race options now that their GC leader, Contador is gone.

The entire Orica GreenEdge Team is loaded with viable candidates for the next couple of stages. Simon Gerrans' fifth place finish on stage 7 is the best result that the Aussie team has put up so far in this race, so they need to get something done. Michael Albasini might be their best bet.

Terpstra (OPQ) and Chavanel (IAM) attacked on stage 8

Andrey Grivko (Astana) could likely get into the break if he's feeling good.

Besides Sagan, Cannondale have a couple of riders who are itching for an opportunity to try their luck: Elia Viviani--a very good sprinter himself--and Marco Marcato, who could be a good breakaway candidate.

Niki Terpstra or Michal Golas might find the legs for Omega Pharma tomorrow.

Romain Feillu of the wildcard Bretagne-Seche squad is a sprinter who would enjoy a shot at a stage win, particularly if the big sprinters' teams aren't around at the end. Another option for them could be Anthony Delaplace.

Garmin-Sharp have several potential options for stages 11 and 12. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack Bauer try to make the break.

Normally, I would select Arthur Vichot for a stage like tomorrow's, but his form hasn't looked great to me lately. FDJ have other possibilities, like Jeremy Roy, who can try his luck on almost any terrain.

Green Jersey leader Peter Sagan

Lotto Belisol is chock-full-of options. Greipel will probably try to be there for the finish, but if not, then Jurgen Roelandts and Lars Bak are both well-versed in fast, technical finishes.

Maybe Kevin Reza of Europcar will get a chance to ride for himself tomorrow if Bryan Coquard isn't there at the end.

I don't think we have seen Julien Simon get into a break yet. The French Cofidis rider was fourth at the French National Championships a couple weeks ago.

For NetApp, Paul Voss is a good breakaway candidate; and Zak Dempster has a fast finish.

OK. So, who am I picking for stage 11?

Not going out on any limbs, I am sticking with the powerful Peter Sagan.

My "lonshot" pick is Danny Oss of BMC.

Stage 20 Angliru Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

I am very sorry that I have not been able to post to this blog much the last few days. I have a family member in the hospital, and have not had the time to blog.

The Vuelta has been a great fight in my opinion, and, as many suggested, it will be decided tomorrow on the “Beast of Asturias”.

Stage 20 profile

Profiles of the final two climbs

The Angliru climb is long and steep. In some places it is brutally steep. With maxes over 23%, and an average gradient of over 10%, the Angliru is over 12k of difficult climbing. it hosts the final climb of the 2013 Vuelta a España, and should see some serious fireworks among the overall contenders.

Can Chris Horner continue to dominate the high mountain finishes and hold off Vincenzo Nibali, to take the crown for the 2013 Vuelta a España?

Can Nicolas Edet get into another break and seal the king of the mountains jersey?

Can Alejandro Valverde hold off a charging Joaquim Rodriguez for the final podium spot?

Tune in on Saturday to find out.

Sunday the race ends with a short, mostly ceremonial sprint stage into Madrid. Which sprinters will survive to contest the last bunch sprint of the race?

My pick for the stage-20 win: Chris Horner

Stage 14 Race Report and Results 2013 Vuelta a España

A young long shot survived to take the win in the first Pyrenean mountain stage today. We saw another stage winner come from the early breakaway on stage 14. Terrible weather had a big impact on the race, causing problems for many riders.

Here is my [rough] stage-14 report if you want to read a brief outline of how the race unfolded. Afterwards you’ll find some comments and my pick for tomorrow:

Stage 14 profile

Stage 14

Baga to Andorra, 155.7k

First day of bad weather

Rain, cold (Temps mid 40’s; beow 40f/5c at Envalira summit)

No TV images for first couple of hours due to cloud cover.

*Early Break went at km3: LL Sanchez, Gilbert, Ratto, Chainel, and Brown.

Lead is up to 11:25

The leaders are on the HC Envalira climb:

The HC climb is 26.7k long

Brown has been there to help Sanchez;

Brown and Chainel are quickly dropped on the climb

Stage 13 Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

Stage 13 profile

Stage 13 on the map

Stage 13 is a rolling 169 kilometers, which looks at first glance like a sprinter’s stage. But the profile might be slightly misleading. The most outstanding characteristic on the profile is the climb that comes 115 kilometers into the stage. The category-1 Alto del Rat Penat rises 460 meters over 4.3k for an average gradient of a painful 10.6% and a max of 16%, but it tops out with about 50k to go to the finish. It should produce some splits in the peloton, probably dropping some of the sprinters, but 50k is a lot of road to pull back an escape.

The cat-1 climb profile

Ten KOM points are available at the summit of the category-1 Alto del Rat Penat climb, in addition to the three points up for grabs on the early cat-3 climb. While that is no windfall of mountain points, it could still be significant enough in a tight polka dot jersey race, to tempt a persistent jersey hunter like maybe Cofidis’ Nicolas Edet, or Saxo’s Tomas Marczynski, to get into the break.

The final 5k ends with a short slope up

The finale should prove to be the deciding factor when the riders speed in to Castelldefels on the Balearic Coast near Barcelona. 15 flat final kilometers lead up to a four hundred meter slope up to the line. The hill gets steeper toward the top, so this is not exactly ideal for the sprinters. But the stronger, punchy finishers should like the look of the finale.

Expect Philippe Gilbert and Edvald Boasson Hagen to go for it again tomorrow. I would also expect to see Rinaldo Nocentini, Michael Matthews, Gianni Meersman, maybe Stybar or Flecha, and possibly several of the top GC riders take a shot at that final kick up to the line. I would not be surprised at all to see Fabian Cancellara take another shot at a stage win on Friday.

My pick to win stage 13: I really like Nocentini, Gilbert, and Boasson Hagen for stage 13. Yesterday I picked Gilbert to win stage 13, but then he won stage 12 today. So I am going to go with Edvald Boasson Hagen of Team Sky for the win on Friday.

My dark-horse pick goes to Warren Barguil of Argos Shimano. 

Stage 3 Report and Stage 4 Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

The favorites for the General Classification at the 68^th Vuelta a España found the short uphill finish of stage 3 too inviting to be left to the uphill sprinters, as some pundits claimed might be the case today. Team Radioshack’s 41-year-old American climber, Chris Horner, won the stage on a late attack on the final climb, claiming his first ever Grand Tour stage win, and first ever GT leader’s jersey.

Chris Horner made history on stage 3

The win also makes Horner the oldest rider ever to win a GT stage and the oldest ever to lead a Grand Tour. Horner had won the queen stage at the Tour of Utah a couple weeks ago, but had struggled through much of the season with a lingering knee injury. Five months away from racing in the heart of the 2013 season does not seem to have prevented the great American talent from finding his top form again just 58 days from his 42^nd birthday. Relatively easy stage profiles for the next four stages suggest that Horner could potentially keep the red jersey for several more days.

Stage 4 on the map

Stage 4 to Fisterra on Tuesday takes the riders 189 kilometers to the end of the world. “La etapa del fin del mundo” is so named because the peninsula hosting the stage finish is the westernmost point in mainland Spain. A bumpy rolling route, stage 4 heads generally westward to another small uphill ramp to the finish. Half the size of stsage 3’s finish climb, the stage 4 finale climbs about 100 meters over 2.5k. This is the stage for the strong, uphill sprinters. 

The stage-4 route to "the end of the world"

The finale peninsula

Stage4 Profile

Profile of the final 5k of stage 4

Stage 4 is a tough stage to pick a winner, as a lot of riders will have marked this one down as a good one to go for. World Champion Philippe Gilbert might target this one for his first win of the season. Also look for the likes of Michael Matthews, Gianni Meersman, Simon Gerrans, Angel Vicioso, Juan Antonio Flecha, Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jelle Vanendert, Daniele Ratto, Johnny Hoogerland, Grega Bole, Zdenek Stybar, Anthony Roux, or Luis Leon Sanchez to go for glory on Tuesday. Maybe Fabian Cancellara will treat us to an escape attempt tomorrow. Spartacus has enjoyed testing his legs on stages like this in the past.

My pick to win stage 3, Roman Kreuziger, finished 22^nd, with the second group of favorites behind Horner, :13 back. [though I was ecstatic to see Horner get the win today].

My long shot pick, Huzarski, finished in the same group. He was 18^th on stage 3.

My pick for stage 4: I like Grega Bole and Anthony Roux (among others) here, but I am going with Gianni Meersman of Omega Pharma-Quickstep.

For a long shot I’ll pick 21-year-old Warren Barguil of Argos Shimano. The young Frenchman has not produced much in the way of personal results this year, but he is riding well so far in the Vuelta, and looks to be in good form.

2013 Tour de France Race Wrap-up

I posted my picks for the jerseys and the top ten in the General Classification in my stage 1 preview.

Here is a brief look at how I did on my top 10 picks for 2013 Tour de France:

MY PICKS:                                                   ACTUAL RESULTS:

1. Froome 2. Contador 3. Valverde 4. Evans 5. Rodriguez 6. Van Den Broeck 7. Mollema 8. Quintana 9. Porte 10. Fuglsang

1. Froome 2. Quintana 3. Rodriguez 4. Contador 5. Kreuziger 6. Mollema 7. Fuglsang 8. Valverde 9. Navarro 10. Talansky

  

Seven of my ten picks made the top ten in the final classification; Valverde notably finishing lower than I expected, and Quintana, higher. My three picks that did not finish in the top 10 were:

Evans couldn't podium in two Grand Tours

1) Cadel Evans, who finished 39^th, ninety minutes off the winner’s time. I believe I commented before the Tour that Evans had more miles in his legs this year than any of the top contenders. Racing to third place at the Giro d’Italia in May turned out to be more draining than training for the veteran Aussie and 2011 TDF Champ. (Perhaps interestingly, this Tour’s winner and runner up, Froome and Quintana, had come into the race having ridden the fewest miles this season, out of any of the top GC contenders).

Stage 5 Preview 2013 Tour De France Profile and Picks

By the end of stage six of the Tour De France last year, Mark Cavendish had already won a stage, André Greipel had won two stages, and Peter Sagan had won three. So far this year, none of them has tasted victory yet.

Sagan has the green jersey, but he has not yet crossed a finish line first. Stage 5 to Marseilles tomorrow gives the Slovakian speedster—and the other fast men--another opportunity.

Stage 5 Profile

Stage 5 is another rolling route similar to stage 3, except for two main, possibly offsetting differences: its climbs are a little less demanding, and the stage is 83 kilometers longer (or 57% longer).  At over 228 kms, stage 5 is the second longest of the race.  However, there is so much undulation throughout the route that the fast men who want to force a bunch sprint will have to chase very hard to keep up with a determined breakaway.

The westerly stage 5 route to Marseilles

None of the four categorized climbs is above a cat-3, and that one, the first, at km22, is only 1.4k long. The other three are cat-4’s, none of which is steep enough to cause much damage. 228 kms is a long time for a break group to hold off the peloton, but a number of possible attack sites exist on the course, and a late break could potentially succeed.

After the last cat-4 there is an uncategorized climb that tops out about 12.5k from the finish. The descent of that hill may be a good place for a bold attack to get away. If a charging peloton are not too far behind any escapees in the last 20k or so, then whatever sprinters make that group will be likely to have their bunch sprint finish.

Weather could become a factor on Wednesday. The temperature is expected to be about the same, but I read a 40% chance of showers is expected for the start town of Cagnes-sur-Mer; although the finish in Marseilles only expects partly cloudy skies. If those rolling roads are wet they could cause some unfortunate crashes. Headwinds are also going to trouble escapees in the final few kilometers.

PICKS:

The lack of any “real” climbs leads me to think that the sprinters will force the bunch sprint in the end. A few may not be able to keep up, but I wouldn’t bet against any of the top names. I like Sagan again, and he’ll be gunning for a win after two consecutive second places on stages 2 and 3. But since I picked him on both of those stages, I will go with someone else.

Cavendish and Greipel are both reasonable picks, of course. Julien Simon of the wildcard Sojasun team and Daryl Impey of the on-fire Orica GreenEdge team have been looking very stage hungry, as have JJ Rojas (Movistar), Juan Antonio Flecha (Vacansoleil), and Francesco Gavazzi (Astana). I would not be surprised if Lars Boom tries something on Wednesday, but I am going to pick Team Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Stage 4 Preview 2013 Tour De France Team Time Trial, Nice

 

25k flat TTT – Nice

The team time trial route map in Nice

Stage 4 on Tuesday brings the peloton back to the French mainland for the 25k team time trial. The roads are big and flat, with just nine 90-degree corners to navigate, and none in the last 2km. Team Sky and Omega Pharma-Quickstep would be my first two picks—except for all the injuries those two teams have sustained in the first three stages. Key men for this discipline are riding hurt, like Tony Martin and Niki Terpstra for Omega Pharma, and for Team Sky, Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas—the latter riding with a fractured pelvis—and Mark Cavendish is reportedly riding with a bronchial infection.

The strength and depth of those teams could still be enough to net them high finishes, as both still have several top TT talents remaining. The handicaps Sky and Omega are suffering as a result of crashes and illness put them on a more level footing with a few other teams. I am looking at Garmin, Movistar, and Orica GreenEdge to potentially grab high placings. Just behind them I would mention Radioshack, BMC, Saxo-Tinkoff, and Astana.

Stage 4 team time trial profile

All those teams could produce strong results in the TTT.  Despite it all, I am still picking Omega Pharma for the win. They are much the same OPQ squad that won the Tirreno Adriatico TTT in March, and was second at the 2012 Vuelta a España TTT. With riders as strong against the clock as Sylvain Chavanel (French National TT Champ), Michal Kwiatkowski, and Peter Velits, Omega Pharma can win even without Tony Martin’s giant engine.  Additionally, even an injured Tony Martin might surprise us with a heroic ride tomorrow.

If Omega does win, I was thinking they would probably try to put Chavanel in front as they cross the line, to take the yellow jersey; but I guess if Kwiatkowski is with the first finishing five, then he would take the race lead since he is currently placed higher than Chavanel in the overall standings. 

2013 Tour De France Stage 1 Preview

The 2013 Tour de France begins tomorrow in Porto-Vecchio, Corsica. A flat stage with a bunch sprint finish is expected. Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Peter Sagan, Marcel Kittel, Matt Goss, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni and others will face off for the honor of wearing the first Maillot Jaune of the Tour.

Stage One Profile

My pick for stage 1: Mark Cavendish

Here is my prediction for the final Yellow Jersey Classification at the 2013 Tour De France:

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Valverde
4. Evans
5. Rodriguez
6. Van Den Broeck
7. Mollema
8. Quintana
9. Porte
10. Fuglsang

Other Jerseys:

Green Jersey: Peter Sagan

Mountain Jersey: Chris Froome

White Jersey: Tejay Van Garderen

Team: Garmin Sharp

2013 Critérium du Dauphiné Race Preview

The spring season is basically over, and it’s time for one of the key races that the riders and teams use to fine-tune their summer form going into the Tour De France. The Critérium du Dauphiné offers the riders an eight stage opportunity to test their legs against many of the same competitors that they will face in the Tour De France--and a small glance at some of the upcoming Tour De France route.

The 2013 Critérium du Dauphiné route

The 65^th edition of the Dauphiné begins this Sunday, June 2 in Champéry, Switzerland and ends the following Sunday in Risoul, France. The race is eight stages long and covers about 1138 kilometers in total. This year’s edition is particularly hilly, with four climbing finishes (2 big ones), and only one or two potential legitimate bunch-sprint stages. It also includes a 32.5 km flat individual time trial on stage 4.

Part of stage 8 of the Dauphiné includes the renowned 21 switchbacks of the Alpe d’Huez climb, followed by a short descent and climb over the Col de Sarenne. This same section of the route will feature in stage 18 of the Tour De France next month, so the riders can get some practice in.  The TDF route however, will then climb Alpe d’Huez a second time, the summit hosting that stage’s finish.

No time bonuses at the Dauphiné stage finishes means riders will have to attack the leaders and try to gain valuable time in the hills or in the time trial.  This will not be easy since many of the Tour favorites will be here testing themselves and each other’s prowess.

As usual the Critérium du Dauphiné has drawn most of the Tour De France favorites. The winner of the last two editions, Bradley Wiggins of Team Sky, has dropped out of the race, citing lingering illness and knee pain from his...