TDF STAGE 14 REPORT and RESULTS 2014 TOUR DE FRANCE

Saturday July 19, 2014

177k from Grenoble to Risoul; High Alps; cat-1 summit finish.

Weather: High 80s f , cloudy; much cooler at elevation.

Rafal Valls (LAM) has abandoned.

172 riders on the road today.

A 17-man escape group has formed:

Rodriguez, Roche, Rogers, Majka, Sagan, De Marchi, Thomas, Nieve, Kruijswijk, Gautier, Moinard, Edet, Taaramae, Serpa, Yates, Herrada, Riblon, Timmer.

Most of the break are expected names, but noticeably absent is Thomas Voeckler.

I would have thought that the Europcar star would make the break to battle for mountain jersey points today, and perhaps the win...

The leaders build a three-minute lead.

Stage 14 race profile

-134k: Nieve punctures

No one bothers to contest the sprint with Sagan.

km40: INT:

1. Sagan  [no other green jersey contenders in the top 15]

Vincenzo Nibali's entire Astana team ride at the head of the peloton as they start the long climb up to the Col du Lautaret...

TDF STAGE 14 PREVIEW 2014 TOUR DE FRANCE

Stage 14 on Saturday will look something like Friday's, only tougher. At 177k, it is shorter than stage 13, but has a lot of climbing. Most of the stage goes uphill, except for a very few flat sections, like the approximately 10k flat around La Paute and Bourg-d'Oisans. That's where the intermediate sprint point is located, just about 40k into the stage. We'll see some action there. Sagan would have a better chance than most of the sprinters at capitalizing on that INT.

The treacherous trio on stage 14

Bourg-d'Oisans is a launch pad for some epic mountains, Like Alpe d'Huez, The Col de la Croix de Fer and Les Deux Alpes. Stage 14 will make it's way out of Bourg-d'Oisans skipping Huez, and head east. Then the peloton go up, up, and more up, to the first KOM summit of the day: the 34k-long, category-1 Col du Lautaret. The first two-thirds is easier than the last 10k or 11k, and it never gets really steep at all, but it's a long time to be going up, and it will put some hurt into a lot of legs that will have two more big, bad climbs still ahead of them.

The Lautaret tops out at about 2058 meters, the highest point the race has seen so far. Then comes the long descent that leads to the second challenge of the day: The Hors Categorie Col d'Izoard. This beautiful climb is a Tour favorite--and one of mine as well. At 2360 meters of elevation (or about 7740 feet) it is the highest point in the 2014 Tour. It's characteristic serpentine switchbacks and distinctive exposed summit has become somewhat emblematic as a French Alp Tour de France climb.

Profile of the Col d'Izoard

The Col d'Izoard is officially 19k at 6%. It has a couple of brief respites in the first half, but the final 9k offer no breaks, and rise fairly steadily at grades of between 7.5% and 9% most of the way. The first rider over the summit wins the " Souvenir Henri Desgrange" prize, in honor of the father of the Tour De France. I think it usually comes with 5000 Euros or so.

Then a long descent to the final climb of the day: The cat-1 Risoul climb. This is the Risoul's first time as a finish climb in the Tour De France. It runs 12.6k and averages 6.9%. The summit and finish line are at 1855 meters up, and it has about an 880m drop.

If you've been doing the math, you see that the categorized climbs on Saturday's stage 14 add up to over 65k of climbing. There is even more climbing than that, but that's just the measured ones. The first 82 kilometers are almost entirely uphill, as you can see in the profile, so it will be a war of attrition out there tomorrow.  The riders will also have to go through some severe weather changes as they climb through the heat, up to the cold alpine climate above the treeline, and down, and up again and again. With bronchial infections going around the peloton, we will probably see some more riders getting sick, and maybe dropping out. That cold air can get to ya.

Profile of the final climb, and new finish

MY PICKS:

Well, I dropped the ball on Porte today, but pretty much everything and everyone else I mentioned and predicted about the stage came true. [I scored very high in my cycling fantasy games!] I even said that Majka could have a go, and sure enough, he made his moves and finished the stage in 2nd place! He had been sort of anonymous and unimpressive in the peloton the first two weeks. Usually a great talent in the hills (He finished this year's Giro d'Italia in sixth place overall), I think that--with or without Alberto Contador--Tinkoff Saxo planned to save Majka for the big mountains. I think I recall in 2012, in the Vuelta a España, Team Movistar saving the young Colombian Nairo Quintana until very late in the game, to become Valverde's top lieutenant in the high mountains.

Rafal Majka follows Leopold Konig on stage 13

So, what about today's picks?

Picking Nibali would be too easy. In fact, maybe the real question should be how much is Nibali going to win by? He would certainly love to put another minute or two in his pocket before the race hits the Pyrenees...

Tejay, Valverde, Pinot, Konig and Bardet have been great in the mountains. They all need to attack Nibali, but who can beat him across the line at this point?

I want to say Pinot or Valverde or Van Garderen, but they are all a step behind NIbali right now.

So, I will pick Joaquim Rodriguez to win from the break.

Long[er] shot pick: Mikel Nieve from SKY. He didn't finish so well on Friday on the Chamrousse, but SKY may want to make a statement after what happened to their first replacement leader. Give Nieve a long leash, and he just might pull it off.

I would not be surprised to see Thomas Voeckler and Purito Rodriguez doing their best to get into a breakaway, and chase those mountain points; and the summit finishes all get double points, so that's incentive to go for the win, too.

There you go.

Enjoy the race!

TDF STAGE 13 REPORT and RESULTS 2014 TOUR DE FRANCE

Stage 13 Report

197.5k from Saint-Étienne to Chamrousse. High mountains; HC summit finish.

Weather: Clear skies; Hot, high 80s f.

Stage 13 forays into the Alps

Matteo Trentin was relegated from 6th to 60th place on stage 12, after his crooked sprint in the finish, which blocked out John Degenkolb. Trentin made a public and genuine apology for the illegal move, which he said was not intentional.

Arthur Vichot (FDJ) abandoned the race today, due to bronchitis.

To the road:

A 9-man breakaway group has gotten clear. The break includes:

Bakelants, Visconti, Durasek, Brice Feillu, Oss, Kadri, De Marchi, Molard, and Huzarski.

Van Den Broeck and Kittel have been down on the ground, before the race came on the air.

*Visconti was first over the first cat-3 KOM, and Kadri was second.

Katusha are driving at the front of the peloton.

By km85 the lead is almost five minutes.

They have averaged 44 kph (27 mph) over the first two hours on the road.

Stage 13 profile shows two long climbs

-97k: The lead is 3:50.

-96k: Cofidis leader Daniel Navarro is off the bike getting attention on the roadside. He has been ill with bronchitis, and is now climbing into the team car with a painful grimace on his face. The Spanish climber's race is over.

 TO CONTINUE READING, CLICK THE TINY WORDS, "Read more...", JUST BELOW:

TDF STAGE 13 ALPS PREVIEW 2014 TOUR DE FRANCE

Stage 13 destination: Chamrousse

Stage 13 Preview:

Tomorrow: The Alps arrive! The cat-1 Col de Palaquit is a Tour first-timer as the first climb in the Alps. It's about 14k at just over 6% average. But a short descent of about 2k in length interrupts the climb after the first 3kms, so the actual 12k of climbing includes some much steeper sections. 

Stage 13 enters the Alps

The 200-k long stage finishes at 1730m up, on the Chamrousse. It is an HC climb at 18.2k long, with a 7.3% average gradient. Most of the steepest sections come early on the climb, but after 180k of racing in the heat and sun, and after the long Palaquit climb, riders will have to pace themselves carefully, or risk going into the red too soon.

It is expected to be another very hot day tomorrow, over 90 f. For this reason, the GC favorites may decide not to burn too much fuel till the finish. This could allow a strong breakaway the chance to succeed. Though what we usually see, and what I expect we'll see tomorrow, is the GC teams timing it so that they catch the break on, or just before, the final climb. Then the top climbers will see who's got the best legs at the summit finish, and will try to improve their overall positions in a tight race for the podium. 

The next two days are strictly for the mountain goats. Froome, Contador, and Talansky are gone, and Nibali still has a nice two-minute cushion at the top of the leader board. But we know that anything can happen in a 3-week tour, and just one day, when a rider is not at his best, or he hits a small crack in the road, or accidentally touches wheels with another rider, can change the entire complexion and outcome of the race.

The HC Chamrousse climb profile

Most, if not all of the riders currently in the top 10 overall, have been fairly evenly matched in the few mountains we have seen so far. But this is when the dents and scratches and nuances start to separate the conditions of the riders from each other. I expect we will continue to have a hot battle for GC positions all the way to the end. Then, of course comes the race of truth...

I really think that Nibali could win the stage on Friday if he wants, and the others will have to attack him to try and rein him in. Richie Porte and Alejandro Valverde seem best able to challenge Nibali now. Then Bardet, Peraud, Pinot and Van Garderen seem sort of evenly matched at a close, but second tier. In optimal circumstances all of them, along with Mollema, Van Den Broeck, Fuglsang, Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa, Chris Horner, Haimar Zubeldia, Leo Konig, and Pierre Rolland are really all top-tier GC contenders, but there is only so much room at the top.

Their fitness levels right now suggest that the current top three on GC may be a cut above the rest, but a quick look at the standings shows that a mere 2:16 separates the second and tenth place riders. Those gaps should start to grow tomorrow, and some riders will overtake others' positions, and some will fall.

Mollema seems to be looking better since his illness, so I would definitely not count him out. Bardet and Peraud look great, as do Tejay and Pinot, so no matter what, we will be treated to a good fight.

Nibali said that he will attack the others in the mountains when he can. He knows that he is not the best at the time trial, and he will want as big a cushion as he can get when the race gets to Bergerac on stage 20. So rather than just follow the wheels of your nearest challengers, when you have a cozy lead, Nibali says he will be active. It's really up to his rivals, though, to bring the race to him.

 

Nibali and Porte are the top two on GC.  Photo: AP

I expect we'll see guys try to get into the breakaways in the Alps like Edet, Cherel, Riblon, Voeckler, Westra, Bakelants, Roy, Kadri, and maybe Rein Taaramae--certainly Cofidis and Europcar will have something going. Maybe high profile guys like Roche, Rogers, or even Majka will have a go, since no one on the Saxo team is within 45 minutes of the race lead. Rogers is their highest placed currently, at 41st and 47:48 off the pace.

Finally never forget Purito Rodriguez. He is the current King of the Mountains jersey wearer, and says he will pursue the overall in that competition. He may try to get into a break in either or both of the Alps stages to grab more points, and maybe have a chance to try for a stage win. I think stage 14 suits the Spaniard a little better than 13.

My pick for stage 13:

Team SKY replacement-captain, and ex-triathlete, the Tasmanian Richie Porte.

Longshot pick:

I hope to see attacks from Rolland, Horner, Gadret and Konig in the Alps, among others, so I'll pick one of my favorite riders: American Chris Horner of the Italian Lampre-Merida team.