Stage 14 on
Saturday will look something like Friday's, only tougher. At 177k, it is shorter
than stage 13, but has a lot of climbing. Most of the stage goes uphill, except
for a very few flat sections, like the approximately 10k flat around La Paute
and Bourg-d'Oisans. That's where the intermediate sprint point is located, just
about 40k into the stage. We'll see some action there. Sagan would have a
better chance than most of the sprinters at capitalizing on that INT.
 |
| The treacherous trio on stage 14 |
Bourg-d'Oisans is a
launch pad for some epic mountains, Like Alpe d'Huez, The Col de la Croix de
Fer and Les Deux Alpes. Stage 14 will make it's way out of Bourg-d'Oisans skipping
Huez, and head east. Then the peloton go up, up, and more up, to the first KOM
summit of the day: the 34k-long, category-1 Col du Lautaret. The first two-thirds
is easier than the last 10k or 11k, and it never gets really steep at all, but
it's a long time to be going up, and it will put some hurt into a lot of legs
that will have two more big, bad climbs still ahead of them.
The Lautaret tops
out at about 2058 meters, the highest point the race has seen so far. Then
comes the long descent that leads to the second challenge of the day: The Hors
Categorie Col d'Izoard. This beautiful climb is a Tour favorite--and one of
mine as well. At 2360 meters of elevation (or about 7740 feet) it is the
highest point in the 2014 Tour. It's characteristic serpentine switchbacks and
distinctive exposed summit has become somewhat emblematic as a French Alp Tour
de France climb.
 |
| Profile of the Col d'Izoard |
The Col d'Izoard is
officially 19k at 6%. It has a couple of brief respites in the first half, but
the final 9k offer no breaks, and rise fairly steadily at grades of between
7.5% and 9% most of the way. The first rider over the summit wins the " Souvenir
Henri Desgrange" prize, in honor of the father of the Tour De France. I
think it usually comes with 5000 Euros or so.
Then a long descent
to the final climb of the day: The cat-1 Risoul climb. This is the Risoul's
first time as a finish climb in the Tour De France. It runs 12.6k and averages
6.9%. The summit and finish line are at 1855 meters up, and it has about an
880m drop.
If you've been
doing the math, you see that the categorized climbs on Saturday's stage 14 add
up to over 65k of climbing. There is even more climbing than that, but that's
just the measured ones. The first 82 kilometers are almost entirely uphill, as
you can see in the profile, so it will be a war of attrition out there
tomorrow. The riders will also
have to go through some severe weather changes as they climb through the heat,
up to the cold alpine climate above the treeline, and down, and up again and
again. With bronchial infections going around the peloton, we will probably see
some more riders getting sick, and maybe dropping out. That cold air can get to
ya.
 |
| Profile of the final climb, and new finish |
MY PICKS:
Well, I dropped the
ball on Porte today, but pretty much everything and everyone else I mentioned
and predicted about the stage came true. [I scored very high in my cycling
fantasy games!] I even said that Majka could have a go, and sure enough, he
made his moves and finished the stage in 2nd place! He had been sort of
anonymous and unimpressive in the peloton the first two weeks. Usually a great
talent in the hills (He finished this year's Giro d'Italia in sixth place
overall), I think that--with or without Alberto Contador--Tinkoff Saxo planned
to save Majka for the big mountains. I think I recall in 2012, in the Vuelta a
España, Team Movistar saving the young Colombian Nairo Quintana until very late
in the game, to become Valverde's top lieutenant in the high mountains.
 |
| Rafal Majka follows Leopold Konig on stage 13 |
So, what about
today's picks?
Picking Nibali
would be too easy. In fact, maybe the real question should be how much is Nibali going to win by? He would certainly love to put another minute or two in his pocket before the race hits the Pyrenees...
Tejay, Valverde, Pinot,
Konig and Bardet have been great in the mountains. They all need to attack
Nibali, but who can beat him across the line at this point?
I want to say Pinot or Valverde or Van Garderen, but they are all a step behind NIbali right now.
So, I will pick Joaquim Rodriguez to win from the
break.
Long[er] shot pick:
Mikel Nieve from SKY. He didn't
finish so well on Friday on the Chamrousse, but SKY may want to make a
statement after what happened to their first
replacement leader. Give Nieve a long leash, and he just might pull it off.
I would not be
surprised to see Thomas Voeckler and Purito Rodriguez doing their best to get
into a breakaway, and chase those mountain points; and the summit finishes all
get double points, so that's incentive to go for the win, too.
There you go.
Enjoy the race!
