Stage 4 Preview 2014 Tour de France

Stage 4:

163.5k, mostly flat, from Le Touquet-Paris-Plage on the English Channel Coast, south of Calais, Eastward and inland to Lille, just south of Roubaix, near the Belgian border. Just two small category-4 climbs on the way.

Weather: Clear and sunny, mid 60s f.

DNS: Andy Schleck

 

Stage 4 race route to Lille

Expect another bunch sprint finish today. The riders have left Britain and made the transfer over to the mainland. Some had an easier transfer than others, as Marcel Kittel had his precious hair gel confiscated by officials at the border. Will it affect his chance to win a third sprint today? We shall see...

Andrei Greipel's Lotto Belisol team has been struggling to put their sprint leader in a good position to contest the finish sprints. Maybe they can find the right formula today. Young French Team Europcar sprinter Brian Coquard has been very competitive in the sprints. He will be looking for his first stage win in his home race today, too. 

Stage 4 Profile

Alexander Kristoff of Katusha will also be looking to prove his mettle today. He had some harsh words for Mark Cavendish after the Manxman's dramatic stage-one finale crash, calling the move intentional, and suggesting that punitive action be taken against the Omega Pharma sprinter. Cav was the only rider injured in the wreck; he suffered a separated shoulder and torn ligaments and was forced to abandon the race, so I would think that any lesson to be learned from the overly-aggressive action has already taken effect.

Then, of course, there is Peter Sagan. Maybe the Slovakian road race champion can get Kittel's number today and register his first stage win of this 101st edition of Le Grande Boucle.

My pick today: the obvious choice is Marcel Kittel. My "longshot" pick will be Andrei Greipel.

I will post today's results after the race finishes in Lille later.

Enjoy the racing!

Stage 14, 15 and 16 Pyrenees Previews 2013 Vuelta a España

Collective profiles of stages 14, 15 and 16 through the Pyrenees

The Pyrenean stages visit three countries

Stages 14, 15 and 16 take the Vuelta a España into the majestic Pyrenees. The peloton will spend time in Andorra and France, cross eleven categorized climbs—five of which are category 1 or above—and only the strong will survive. Each of the next three stages ends with a category-1 summit finish.  Not one is a walk in the park, but stage 15 stands out as the big killer. I don’t know what other folks think, but in my opinion, stage 15 (which traverses four cat-1 climbs, and ends with the Peyresourde-Peyragudes double) is the queen stage of this Vuelta.

I am not going to be around for a few days, so I am writing this before stage 13. This post is a brief, single preview now for all three Pyrenean stages...

Stage 13 Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

Stage 13 profile

Stage 13 on the map

Stage 13 is a rolling 169 kilometers, which looks at first glance like a sprinter’s stage. But the profile might be slightly misleading. The most outstanding characteristic on the profile is the climb that comes 115 kilometers into the stage. The category-1 Alto del Rat Penat rises 460 meters over 4.3k for an average gradient of a painful 10.6% and a max of 16%, but it tops out with about 50k to go to the finish. It should produce some splits in the peloton, probably dropping some of the sprinters, but 50k is a lot of road to pull back an escape.

The cat-1 climb profile

Ten KOM points are available at the summit of the category-1 Alto del Rat Penat climb, in addition to the three points up for grabs on the early cat-3 climb. While that is no windfall of mountain points, it could still be significant enough in a tight polka dot jersey race, to tempt a persistent jersey hunter like maybe Cofidis’ Nicolas Edet, or Saxo’s Tomas Marczynski, to get into the break.

The final 5k ends with a short slope up

The finale should prove to be the deciding factor when the riders speed in to Castelldefels on the Balearic Coast near Barcelona. 15 flat final kilometers lead up to a four hundred meter slope up to the line. The hill gets steeper toward the top, so this is not exactly ideal for the sprinters. But the stronger, punchy finishers should like the look of the finale.

Expect Philippe Gilbert and Edvald Boasson Hagen to go for it again tomorrow. I would also expect to see Rinaldo Nocentini, Michael Matthews, Gianni Meersman, maybe Stybar or Flecha, and possibly several of the top GC riders take a shot at that final kick up to the line. I would not be surprised at all to see Fabian Cancellara take another shot at a stage win on Friday.

My pick to win stage 13: I really like Nocentini, Gilbert, and Boasson Hagen for stage 13. Yesterday I picked Gilbert to win stage 13, but then he won stage 12 today. So I am going to go with Edvald Boasson Hagen of Team Sky for the win on Friday.

My dark-horse pick goes to Warren Barguil of Argos Shimano. 

Stage 10 Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

Mountainous stage 10 is the last in the south

Here is a reminder of the demanding stage-10 profile for Monday. The big summit finish will surely see more changes to the overall classifications. The GC favorites will likely fight hard for advantages, as the stage is followed by a welcome rest day on Tuesday (there is however a long transfer north before stage 11). After the rest day the riders will tackle the only individual time trial of the race on Wednesday which will further establish the pecking order ahead of the big Pyrenean stages to come.

Stage 10 Profile

 

Stage 10 categorized climb profiles

My pick to win stage 10: Joaquim Rodriguez.

I think Purito will want to go for whatever time he can grab in the mountains, before the TT on stage 11.

 

Preview of stages 8 to 10 2013 Vuelta a España

Three consecutive uphill finishes coming up on stages 8-10 before the stage-11 time trial.

Stage 8 on the map

Stage 8 Saturday is a big summit finish on the Alto de Peñas Blancas. The climb is 14.5k averaging 6.6%, with a maximum gradient of 12.5%. It rises almost a thousand meters in that span, and is a category 1 climb.

Stage 8 Profile

Final cat-1 climb of stage 8

As you can see in the profile, the climb is steep at the bottom, then levels off a bit for a couple kilometers before kicking up again for nine long kilometers to the summit.

The GC contenders will have a good battle on Saturday.

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Stage 9 Profile

Stage 9 final 5k

Stage 9 on Sunday is a good opportunity for a breakaway. The category 2 climb at km142 is 6.1% average and tops out about 16.2k from the finish. The last kilometer tilts up to the finish line.

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Stage 10 Profile

Stage 10's two tough climbs

Stage 10 ends with two big, painful climbs. The final climb to the finish is 15.8k long, but pay no attention to the average gradient. It includes the 3 kilometers of flat and descending road that precedes the real beast. The final 7+ kms are very steep, with max gradients approaching 20%. The first rest day follows, so stage 10 should see a good battle among the GC guys.

Pick your favorite climbers. The big steep finishes will offer guys like Purito and Pozzovivo a chance to gain back some lost time. I think Valverde and Uran should also shine this weekend. It will good to see if Horner and Roche and especially Zubeldia can keep their high places after these climbs.

My pick for stage 8: Domenico Pozzovivo

Stage 2 Report and Stage 3 Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

The son of a champ is champ for a day

Stage 2 of the 2013 Vuelta a España featured the first summit finish of the race, the category-1 Monte da Groba. The three-man break was caught on the early slopes of the 11-k climb to the finish, and the GC hopefuls showed their form as they tested their legs on the first serious climb of the race.

Four riders got clear of the bunch in the final kilometers and battled for the stage win. Leopold Konig of Team Netapp-Endura put in a promising attack, but was reeled in by Ag2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo, Team Saxo Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche, and Daniel Moreno of Katusha. In the end it was Roche who took the win, showing his best form of the season, and netting his first win in two years. Before the race Roche stated that he was going for a top-5 spot on the general classification.

The bigger story may be the unexpected suffering of some of the race favorites on the final climb. Sergio Henao, Team Sky’s proclaimed leader, lost contact with the peloton and finished 60^th, 2:41 behind Roche’s winning time. It looks now like Sky will pin their GC hopes on Henao’s fellow Colombian, Rigoberto Uran, who finished 10^th today.

Sammy Sanchez, leader of the moribund Euskaltel Team, was dropped on the climb and lost significant time. As of this writing, his name does not appear in today’s stage results. His teammates Igor Anton, Gorka Verdugo and Egoi Martinez all lost 2:41, so the Basque team only has Mikel Nieve remaining in a competitive position, currently 29^th, 1:14 off the lead. **UPDATE: They finally added Sanchez's name to the stage results: he finished with his teammates who had waited for him, 2:41 back.

Beñat Intxausti of Team Movistar was another casualty of the clock, losing more than two minutes. His team is of course counting on Alejandro Valverde for overall success, but Intxausti’s help will be vital in the big mountains to come.

First red jersey wearer, Janez Brajkovic of Astana, finished 40^th, :51 off the pace, but more importantly, his leader, Vincenzo Nibali, took over the race lead with his solid performance on stage 2.

Stage 3 route

Stage 3 Profile

Stage 3 continues in Galicia, taking the peloton 185 mostly flat kilometers, from Vigo to Mirador de Lobeira. The circuitous route follows much of the local coastline, and should offer some very nice views. The only categorized climb on the route is the cat-3 finishing hill. It is about a 3k steep ramp that will favor the puncheurs.

The stage 3 climb to the finish

 

My pick to win stage 2, Rafal Majka finished 12^th, with the main group of GC favorites, :14 behind the winner—Majka’s teammate, Nicolas Roche.

My pick for stage 3: I would say Pozzovivo, Gilbert and Purito are good bets, but I am going to pick Roman Kreuziger to give Saxo two consecutive wins.

For a long shot I’ll pick Bartosz Huzarski of Team Netapp to notch his first win of the season.

Stage 21 Preview 2013 Tour De France

134k Versailles to Paris, FLAT

Stage 21 finishes, as always, in Paris

The 2013 100^th edition of the Tour De France comes to a conclusion on Sunday.  Chris Froome of Britain’s Team Sky has sown up the win after defending his lead for two weeks. He won on top of Ax 3 Domaines on stage 8, and has worn yellow ever since. He even had to defend himself, literally, when he shoved a fan out of the way who had gotten too close to the elite breakaway trio.

The other jerseys are all decided too. All that is left to contest is Sunday’s sprint finish on the Champs-Élysées. The winners will enjoy a leisurely ride into Paris from Versailles, and a nighttime finish has been scheduled for the first time, in honor of the centenary celebration. The finish is scheduled for around 9:30 pm local time. 

Stage 21 Profile

Stage 21 route

Mark Cavendish will try to grab his fifth career win on the famed Boulevard between the Arc de Triomphe and the Place de la Concorde. Peter Sagan will probably pop another wheelie or two. Let’s hope he comes up with some new tricks soon.

André Greipel and Marcel Kittel wouldn’t mind another notch on their stage-win belts. There is not much more to say about the stage, except, enjoy the pageant and pick your sprinter.

MY PICK: My last pick of the race is going to the Manx Missile from Omega Pharma. Mark Cavendish

I will post full results after the stage, and then a race wrap-up later on, with conclusions from the race, and I will see how I did on my picks and predictions overall. [I think nine of my stage picks came in second]

Stage 20 Preview and Profile 2013 Tour De France

125k from Annecy to Annecy-Semnoz

Stage 20 around Annecy

The final showdown for the contenders in the General Classification has arrived. Stage 20 is the last mountain stage of the Tour De France. It is the last opportunity for the climbers to impose their will on the road, and the last opportunity for any reshuffling on the overall leaderboard.

The final stage into Paris on Sunday will be a flat one for the sprinters, and unless something awful happens, a stress-free celebration of a dominant Tour win for Team Sky’s Chris Froome. Before that, they have the six categorized climbs of stage 20.

A few smaller climbs in the first 50k will offer opportunities for breakaways and mountain jersey points for the contenders in the polka dot jersey competition. The stage is very short, at 125 kilometers, so it will probably be very fast, and very aggressive. A lot of teams will be hoping for results in Annecy.

Stage 20 profile

The Annecy-Semnoz mountaintop finish is a newcomer to the Tour. It is an HC rated climb measuring 10.7k and averaging 8.5%. The GC contenders will most likely have resigned themselves to Froome winning, but the fight for the next few places is still hot.

Profile of the final climb on stage 20

The battle for the mountains jersey should also be hotly contested Saturday, with five riders within eleven points of each other at the top of the standings in that competition. Two mountain points are available over two category-4 climbs on the final stage Sunday, so if the king of the mountains is too close to call by the end of stage 20, It is possible it could not be decided until Sunday.

Pick your favorite climber. Stage 20 could see another break succeed, or it could come down to the GC favorites. I would expect Joaquim Rodriguez is still very hungry for a stage win, so if it comes down to the favorites, he is my pick. He has been getting stronger, and is perfectly tailored for the steep finish. He is also very keen to finish on the podium in Paris, and may throw caution to the wind to get there. Purito is currently fifth overall, but just :47 behind second place Alberto Contador.

The weather forecast for Annecy on Sunday:

Clear with a chance of a thunderstorms and rain in the afternoon. High of 82F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Stage 19 Preview and Profile 2013 Tour De France

204.5k From Bourg-D’Oisans to Le Grand-Bornand

High Mountains

Stage 19 heads north to Le Grand Bornand

The first of three grueling stages in the Alps is behind them now. The riders in the Tour De France now have the five climbs of stage 19 ahead of them. 67 kilometers of climbing on the 204.5k course, after the double Alpe d’Huez roller coaster on Thursday, should put some real hurt into the riders’ legs.

Chris Froome defended his lead in the General Classification once again on stage 18. Now the Sky leader holds an advantage of over five minutes on his nearest rival, Alberto Contador. Contador struggled on the final climb up Alpe d’Huez, but was able to limit his losses and retain second place overall.

When the yellow jersey group finally fell apart in the last kilometers of the final climb, Nairo Quintana of Movistar was the only rider able to stay with Joaquim Rodriguez when the veteran climber attacked and went clear.  The young Colombian pulled himself up from fifth place overall into a podium spot in third place. He trails second place Contador by 21 seconds. Quintana extended his lead in the young rider’s competition in the process. He now holds a commanding nine-minute lead over Michal Kwiatkowski in that competition.

Stage 19 route

Bauke Mollema struggled some more today and dropped from fourth overall to sixth. His teammate Ten Dam dropped from seventh overall to tenth.

Alejandro Valverde pulled himself back up to 11^th overall today. A tiring Laurens Ten Dam is in his sights, just 17 seconds ahead in tenth place. Kwiatkowski and Rogers are also within 30 seconds ahead of Valverde. The Spaniard could get well into the top ten tomorrow, but a top five spot is probably beyond his reach now.

Jakob Fuglsang of Astana gained one more place. The Dane now holds seventh place overall. Dan Martin of Garmin-Sharp really struggled on Alpe d’Huez and lost over 20 minutes. He dropped from tenth to 19^th on GC.

Friday’s stage 19 from Bourg-D’Oisans to Le Grand-Bornand features five categorized climbs over a 204.5k route. The first two climbs define the first half of the stage. They are the long Col du Glandon (21.6k averaging 5.1% gradient) and the relentless, 2000-meter high Col de la Madeleine (19.2k at 7.9%).  

Stage 19 profile

Again, attacks will probably start immediately, as ambitious riders try to make the break on the first climb. Stage 19 could very well be another good opportunity for a break to succeed.

Profile of the final climb of stage 19, the Croix Fry

The three climbs that mark the second half of the stage are a little less brutal, but taken all together, it is enough for any rider to have a very bad day. Rain is in the forecast, too. The peloton lucked out with the mostly dry weather on Alpe d’Huez, but tense, cautious descending could return tomorrow with a thunder burst.

The final climb is the category 1 Col de le Croix Fry (11.3k at 7%). It tops out 13k before the finish line. Stage contenders will hope to be first over the top before the 13k descent to the finish at Grand-Bornand if they want to secure the win.

The finale shows a short incline to the finish

This is the penultimate opportunity for challengers to make their mark on the race. Saturday is another difficult climbing stage that ends on top of a new addition to the Tour’s mountain repertoire, Annecy-Semnoz. After that just comes Sunday’s flat run in to Paris where the sprinters will have their last shot. The GC battle will be decided Saturday. It is crunch time now.

Stage 19 will be a very difficult stage to pick a winner for. I am going to stick with one of the race favorites, because I think some of the guys in the top ten will try to gain time, and maybe get a stage win in the process.

MY PICK: Jakob Fuglsang

Stage 18 Preview Alpe d'Huez 2013 Tour De France

Stage 18 on the map

The 100^th Tour De France saw its first inclement weather on the stage-17 time trial to Chorges. Heavy rain is again a strong possibility tomorrow for the mountainous 18^th stage of the Tour De France.  The stage is clearly one for the climbers, with six categorized climbs over the 172.5-kilometer course. For the first time in Tour history, the peloton will do two ascents of the most famous climb in cycling, including a mountaintop finish atop the 21 switchbacks of Alpe d’Huez.

 The mountain has been a Tour staple for decades, and has hosted many thrilling moments. The Bernard Hinault-Greg Lemond drama in 1986; Marco Pantani’s record time in 1997; Armstrong and Ullrich in 2001; and how about Alberto Contador punching that intrusive fan in 2011. Never a dull moment on Alpe d’Huez.

Stage 18 profile

The stage begins in Gap with a familiar ascent. The riders will go over the category-2 Col de Manse almost immediately after the flag drops. The first climb of the day was the last climb on stage 16 to Gap. 30 kms later, the race goes over a small category-3 climb during a jagged up-and-down section, which characterizes the rest of the first half of the stage.

"The Look", 2001

Then comes the cat-2 Col d’Ornon. Topping out at 1371 meters 95k into the stage, the easier side of the Ornon is 5.1k long with a 6.7% average gradient. It could be the site of renewed interest in attacking.

After the descent of the Col d’Ornon, the remaining 60+ kms are serious. Around km 110 the riders will begin the first ascent of Alpe d’Huez. Huge crowds will line the sides of the twisting road up the Tour’s most popular climb—even in the rain. Many will have set up camp days in advance, to be part of the spectacle on the carnival of a climb.

Profile of climbs 4 and 5

This edition offers fans the greatest viewing opportunity on the mountain, as the spectators will enjoy two separate ascents by the peloton. The second ascent should see a very thinned-out field at the front of the race.

The first ascent of Huez is 12.3k at 8.4%. It is an Hors Categorie climb, the highest designation. The KOM line is set at km 122.5.

From the KOM line, the riders will drop down a little ways and then climb the 3 kilometers to the summit of the Col de Sarenne (3k at 7.8%). This takes the riders to the highest point of the stage, at 1999m of elevation.

Profile of the final ascent of Alpe d'Huez

A very challenging descent follows. Rain will be a major factor here, as the riders will be forced to navigate the steep, technical drop down to the town of  La Ferriere. Rain is almost definitely expected on Thursday throughout the course. A crash here could mean the end of the Tour for a rider. With another climb of Alpe d’Huez ahead, the top climbers will not want to take too many chances on the descent.

From La Ferriere the riders will set out for the final climb up to the finish on the summit of Alpe d’Huez. This time around, the HC climb is 13.8k at 8.1% average. The finish is 1850m up, and double KOM points will be available at the finish. Only the very best will be able to compete for the win on stage 18.

Don't get in Contador's way on Huez

The stage has more mountain points available than any other stage at this year’s Tour. Chris Froome currently leads the King of the Mountains competition as well as the overall race. His 88 KOM points puts him 19 points ahead of second placed Nairo Quintana, and 35 points ahead of third placed Mikel Nieve. It is theoretically possible that even someone coming in with 0 KOM points could take the polka dot jersey from Froome by winning every climb on Thursday. 92 KOM points are available on the stage-18 course. 

Stages 19 and 20 each offer over 70 points toward the climbing classification, so a couple of well-executed attacks could potentially upset the KOM standings. If however, Froome or Quintana, let’s say, are among the first finishers on Alpe d’Huez on Thursday, then they would get a lot more points, and probably pull away from the others in that competition.

The huge crowds are always a factor on Huez

Many riders will try to make the breakaway right from the start tomorrow. The pure climbers like Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha Igor Anton of Euskaltel and John Gadret of Ag2R have a chance to do some damage, assuming they can get down the hairy descents in a reasonable position. Anton and Gadret have not shown their best form so far, but sixth-place overall Rodriguez will be hoping to cut into Froome’s race lead with a strong ride.

Some of the high-placed riders may have to sacrifice their own GC ambitions in order to support their respective team leaders in these difficult high mountain stages. Saxo-Tinkoff, Belkin, Garmin-Sharp, and Movistar all have multiple riders in the top 15.

We are guaranteed an exciting battle tomorrow. Have fun watching!

MY PICK: Nairo Quintana