Stage 13 Preview 2013 Vuelta a España

Stage 13 profile

Stage 13 on the map

Stage 13 is a rolling 169 kilometers, which looks at first glance like a sprinter’s stage. But the profile might be slightly misleading. The most outstanding characteristic on the profile is the climb that comes 115 kilometers into the stage. The category-1 Alto del Rat Penat rises 460 meters over 4.3k for an average gradient of a painful 10.6% and a max of 16%, but it tops out with about 50k to go to the finish. It should produce some splits in the peloton, probably dropping some of the sprinters, but 50k is a lot of road to pull back an escape.

The cat-1 climb profile

Ten KOM points are available at the summit of the category-1 Alto del Rat Penat climb, in addition to the three points up for grabs on the early cat-3 climb. While that is no windfall of mountain points, it could still be significant enough in a tight polka dot jersey race, to tempt a persistent jersey hunter like maybe Cofidis’ Nicolas Edet, or Saxo’s Tomas Marczynski, to get into the break.

The final 5k ends with a short slope up

The finale should prove to be the deciding factor when the riders speed in to Castelldefels on the Balearic Coast near Barcelona. 15 flat final kilometers lead up to a four hundred meter slope up to the line. The hill gets steeper toward the top, so this is not exactly ideal for the sprinters. But the stronger, punchy finishers should like the look of the finale.

Expect Philippe Gilbert and Edvald Boasson Hagen to go for it again tomorrow. I would also expect to see Rinaldo Nocentini, Michael Matthews, Gianni Meersman, maybe Stybar or Flecha, and possibly several of the top GC riders take a shot at that final kick up to the line. I would not be surprised at all to see Fabian Cancellara take another shot at a stage win on Friday.

My pick to win stage 13: I really like Nocentini, Gilbert, and Boasson Hagen for stage 13. Yesterday I picked Gilbert to win stage 13, but then he won stage 12 today. So I am going to go with Edvald Boasson Hagen of Team Sky for the win on Friday.

My dark-horse pick goes to Warren Barguil of Argos Shimano. 

2013 Vuelta A España Race Preview

2013 VUELTA A ESPAÑA RACE PREVIEW

The final weeks of summer are upon us, and that means it is time for the third and final Grand Tour of the season. The 2013 Vuelta a España arrives to fill up those last weeks of summer with the promise of 21 stages of thrilling racing filled with mountains, mountains, mountains. The route of this 68^th edition of the race is similar to last year’s, with plenty of uphill finishes for the climbers, and just one individual time trial of 38k—and it includes some climbing.

The Pro Tour’s top climbers will come out to try and capitalize on the favorable parcours. This is not a race like the Tour de France, where excellent time trial skills are required for GC contenders. This tour favors pure climbers. Along the 3359-kilometer route the riders will travel counter-clockwise around Spain from Galicia to Madrid. Forays into Andorra and France will showcase some of the challenging mountains the riders must conquer.

THE OVERALL CONTENDERS:

Valverde, Rodriguez and Nibali lead the list of favorites

Top overall contenders for the general classification include: Joaquim Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde, Vincenzo Nibali, Domenico Pozzovivo, Carlos Betancur, Sammy Sanchez, Dan Martin, Michele Scarponi, Sergio Henao, Chris Horner, Roman Kreuziger, Rafal Majka, Bauke Mollema, Laurens Ten Dam, Ivan Basso, and more.

THE SPRINTERS:

The mountainous race route gives short shrift to the sprinters with just six or seven stages looking like viable sprint finishes. Accordingly the sprinters’ field is relatively slim. I am looking at Gianni Meersman, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Maximiliano Richeze, Greg Henderson, Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg, Theo Bos, Daniele Ratto, Daniel Schorn, Juan Antonio Flecha, Barry Markus, Andrew Fenn, Geoffrey Soupe and Leigh Howard--and a few others.

STAGE HUNTERS:

Of course, Philippe Gilbert will be on hand hunting a stage win or two. He is one of several Classics-type riders who will like the punchy, short uphill finishes that winnow out the flat sprinters. Look for the likes of Grega Bole, Bartosz Huzarski, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, Zdenek Stybar, Angel Vicioso, Anthony Roux, Maxim Iglinskiy, Luis Leon Sanchez, Andrey Grivko, Rinaldo Nocentini and Domenico Pozzovivo-among many others--to go hunting for stage wins.

Some riders will be focused on reaching top form for the World Championship races in September. Don’t be surprised if a few of the GC candidates, time trial specialists, sprinters and strong one-day racers seem to underperform, or drop out before Madrid. The Vuelta is not everybody’s primary goal.

THE ROUTE:

In an effort to cover more areas of the country (last year’s edition stayed primarily in northern Spain), the race organizers have had to include some long transfers for the participants. The two rest days will bring some relief after stages 10 and 16--the latter coming after three difficult stages in the Pyrenees.

The race begins with the 27.4k team time trial, which should establish some GC time splits right off the bat. Stage 2 features the first mountaintop finish on the category-1 Monte da Groba, so the overall contenders will need to come to the race already in good form. As usual, the toughest stages are saved for the final week, before the final bunch sprint into Madrid.

On paper, stages 14 and 15 look like the hardest of the race, but the penultimate stage finishes atop the brutal “Beast of Asturias”, the notoriously steep Angliru, and it could prove to be decisive.

13 mountain stages are listed in the official guide. Twelve are uphill finales.

I see nine mountaintop finishes, and three or four smaller uphill finishes.

Six or seven stages are left for the sprinters.

A few stages may be won by breakaways, but among them I would guess that stages 9 and 19 offer the best chances for a successful escape.

The uphill finishes are:

• August 25, 2013

Stage 2 – Pontevedra – Baiona. Alto do Monte da Groba

• August 26, 2013

Stage 3 – Vigo – Mirador de Lobeira / Vilagarcía de Arousa

• August 31, 2013

Stage 8 - Jerez de la Frontera - Estepona. Alto de Peñas

Blancas

• September 1, 2013

Stage 9 – Antequera – Valdepeñas de Jaén

• September 2, 2013

Stage 10 –Torredelcampo – Güéjar Sierra. Alto de Hazallanas

• September 7, 2013

Stage 14 – Bagà - Andorra. Collada de la Gallina

• September 8, 2013

Stage 15 – Andorra - Peyragudes

• September 9, 2013

Stage 16 - Graus – Sallent de Gállego. Aramón Formigal

• September 12, 2013

Stage 18 - Burgos - Peña Cabarga

• September 13, 2013

Stage 19 - San Vicente de la Barquera - Oviedo. Alto del

Naranco

• September 14, 2013

Stage 20 - Avilés - Alto de L’Angliru

Some of the tougher stage profiles:

Stage 10

Stage 14

Stage 15

Stage 20

SPECIFICS:

The Jerseys

Time Bonuses are available at the finish lines on all stages except for the two time trials. The time bonuses are 10, 6, and 4 seconds respectively, for the first three stage finishers. Time bonuses are also given out at the intermediate sprint points: 3, 2, and 1-second bonuses for first through third.

The points jersey contenders will receive points for top-15 stage finish positions and intermediate sprints as follows:

Stage finish position:

1^st            25 points

2^nd            20

3^rd            16

4^th            14

5^th            12

6^th            10

7^th            9

8^th            8

9^th            7

10^th            6

11^th            5

12^th            4

13^th            3

14^th            2

15^th            1

Intermediate sprints:

1^st            4 points

2^nd            2

3^rd            1

The climbers’ jersey competition awards KOM points for the 39 categorized climbs, according to finishing position, as follows:

CIMA ALBERTO FERNÁNDEZ

[Highest climb of the race—comes on stage 14]

SPECIAL CATEGORY CLIMB [Above Category]

1^st   20 points

2^nd   15 points

3^rd   10 points

4^th   6 points

5^th   4 points

6^th   2 points

SPECIAL CATEGORY CLIMBS (2)

  [Above Category]

1^st  15 points

2^nd  10 points

3^rd   6 points

4^th   4 points

5^th   2 points

1^st CATEGORY CLIMBS (12)

1^st   10 points

2^nd   6 points

3^rd   4 points

4^th   2 points

5^th   1 point

2^nd CATEGORY CLIMBS (7)

1^st   5 points

2^nd   3 points

3^rd   1 point

3^rd CATEGORY CLIMBS (17)

1^st   3 points

2^nd   2 points

3^rd   1 point

I will post regular updates throughout the race, so keep coming back!

I will also post my picks around the time the race begins.

Enjoy the race, and please feel free to hit me with any comments or questions.