Stage 21 Preview 2013 Tour De France

134k Versailles to Paris, FLAT

Stage 21 finishes, as always, in Paris

The 2013 100^th edition of the Tour De France comes to a conclusion on Sunday.  Chris Froome of Britain’s Team Sky has sown up the win after defending his lead for two weeks. He won on top of Ax 3 Domaines on stage 8, and has worn yellow ever since. He even had to defend himself, literally, when he shoved a fan out of the way who had gotten too close to the elite breakaway trio.

The other jerseys are all decided too. All that is left to contest is Sunday’s sprint finish on the Champs-Élysées. The winners will enjoy a leisurely ride into Paris from Versailles, and a nighttime finish has been scheduled for the first time, in honor of the centenary celebration. The finish is scheduled for around 9:30 pm local time. 

Stage 21 Profile

Stage 21 route

Mark Cavendish will try to grab his fifth career win on the famed Boulevard between the Arc de Triomphe and the Place de la Concorde. Peter Sagan will probably pop another wheelie or two. Let’s hope he comes up with some new tricks soon.

André Greipel and Marcel Kittel wouldn’t mind another notch on their stage-win belts. There is not much more to say about the stage, except, enjoy the pageant and pick your sprinter.

MY PICK: My last pick of the race is going to the Manx Missile from Omega Pharma. Mark Cavendish

I will post full results after the stage, and then a race wrap-up later on, with conclusions from the race, and I will see how I did on my picks and predictions overall. [I think nine of my stage picks came in second]

Stage 20 Report and Results 2013 Tour De France

125k from Annecy to Annecy-Semnoz

High Mountains, MTF;

Weather: partly cloudy, 27c (80f), chance of rain: 30%

Stage 20 on the map

Today’s stage is a short 125k, and will probably be fast and furious. The stage ends on top of the HC Annecy-Semnoz climb.

Stage 20 is the last chance for riders to try and change their positions in the General Classification. Chris Froome of Team Sky still leads with a commanding 5:11 over second place Alberto Contador of Team Saxo-Tinkoff. The battle for Contador’s spot is in the minds of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana and Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez. Either one of them or Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger will likely get the third podium position. Who will be denied a spot on the podium in Paris?

The stage 20 route around Annecy

We will also see who has the legs to fight for the king of the mountains jersey today. Chris Froome leads Pierre Rolland of Europcar by one point in the mountains competition. Mikel Nieve of the Basque Euskaltel squad is third with just five fewer points than Rolland. Quintana lies fourth, and Christophe Riblon of Ag2R is fifth, just 11 points off the lead.

The difficult category-1 Mont Revard, which tops out at km 78.5, may cause some decisive splits, although its summit is almost 50k from the finish. In any case, it will show who does not have the legs to contest the stage win today.

TO THE ACTION:

170 riders will take the start in the picturesque city of Annecy today.

Sun is shining as the riders take the start.

*Pierre Rolland (EUC) attacks as soon as the flag drops. It looks like the French climber is interested in the polka dot jersey after all.

Jens Voigt (RSL) is the next to jump away from the peloton.

Stage 20 Preview and Profile 2013 Tour De France

125k from Annecy to Annecy-Semnoz

Stage 20 around Annecy

The final showdown for the contenders in the General Classification has arrived. Stage 20 is the last mountain stage of the Tour De France. It is the last opportunity for the climbers to impose their will on the road, and the last opportunity for any reshuffling on the overall leaderboard.

The final stage into Paris on Sunday will be a flat one for the sprinters, and unless something awful happens, a stress-free celebration of a dominant Tour win for Team Sky’s Chris Froome. Before that, they have the six categorized climbs of stage 20.

A few smaller climbs in the first 50k will offer opportunities for breakaways and mountain jersey points for the contenders in the polka dot jersey competition. The stage is very short, at 125 kilometers, so it will probably be very fast, and very aggressive. A lot of teams will be hoping for results in Annecy.

Stage 20 profile

The Annecy-Semnoz mountaintop finish is a newcomer to the Tour. It is an HC rated climb measuring 10.7k and averaging 8.5%. The GC contenders will most likely have resigned themselves to Froome winning, but the fight for the next few places is still hot.

Profile of the final climb on stage 20

The battle for the mountains jersey should also be hotly contested Saturday, with five riders within eleven points of each other at the top of the standings in that competition. Two mountain points are available over two category-4 climbs on the final stage Sunday, so if the king of the mountains is too close to call by the end of stage 20, It is possible it could not be decided until Sunday.

Pick your favorite climber. Stage 20 could see another break succeed, or it could come down to the GC favorites. I would expect Joaquim Rodriguez is still very hungry for a stage win, so if it comes down to the favorites, he is my pick. He has been getting stronger, and is perfectly tailored for the steep finish. He is also very keen to finish on the podium in Paris, and may throw caution to the wind to get there. Purito is currently fifth overall, but just :47 behind second place Alberto Contador.

The weather forecast for Annecy on Sunday:

Clear with a chance of a thunderstorms and rain in the afternoon. High of 82F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Stage 19 Report and Results 2013 Tour De France

Stage 19 from Bourg-D’Oisans to Le Grand-Bornand

204.5k; High mountains;

Weather: cloudy, 18c (65f), rain is expected. Up in the mountains it is closer to 10c (50f).

Christophe Riblon gives France a reason to celebrate

Christophe Riblon of Ag2R did France a favor by winning the Queen Stage to Alpe d’Huez yesterday for his home country. France had been wanting for some results this Tour, and got a good one on stage 18 as Riblon paced himself perfectly, and won from an early breakaway. Can another break succeed today on stage 19 to Le Grand-Bornand? Will Riblon go after the polka dot jersey?

Chris Froome was docked 20 seconds for that illegal feed yesterday toward the end of the stage. Feeding was allowed only up until 6k from the finish line. Richie Porte took food from the team car and gave some to Froome inside 5k to go. He was also penalized. Froome, Porte, and their sports director Nicolas Portal all received fines for the infraction. Froome said he had not been able to take on food at the bottom of the final climb up Alpe d’Huez because their team car had experienced mechanical trouble.

Stage 19 on the map

Today the riders have 5 more categorized climbs to conquer before a 13k descent to the finish..

Glandon: The first mountain is really three climbs in one. The Hors Categorie Col du Glandon is 21.6k long averaging 5.1%. The first part climbs for about 6 kilometers to 1276 meters, then a short downhill section gives a little respite before the second, long section. The second part starts out very steep, climbs about 8.5k to 1790 meters, before another 1.5k downhill recovery point. The third section climbs for about 3k up to the summit at 1924 meters of elevation. Each part has some very steep sections. The 5.1% average gradient of the entire climb takes into account the downhill sections as well as the climbing, so it is deceptive. The mountain is long, steep and challenging.

Madeleine: The second categorized climb is another HC mountain. One of the Tour’s favorite climbs, the Col de la Madeleine (19.2k at 7.9%), is a long steady haul up to 2000 meters of elevation (6562 feet), averaging about 8% over 19.2k. The Madeleine requires a very steady effort, with a brief maximum gradient over 10% right in the middle. It takes the best riders about an hour to climb this beast.

Stage 19 profile

 

After 135k have been covered, two more climbs come in the next 30k. After 180k, the final climb of the day will show who is really going to challenge for the stage win. The final cat-1 climb of the Col de Croix Fry is 11.3k at 7%. A 13k descent to the finish follows. The final kilometer includes a short ramp up to the finish line, so we will see who still has the legs for an explosive finish after all the climbing.

Stage 19 Preview and Profile 2013 Tour De France

204.5k From Bourg-D’Oisans to Le Grand-Bornand

High Mountains

Stage 19 heads north to Le Grand Bornand

The first of three grueling stages in the Alps is behind them now. The riders in the Tour De France now have the five climbs of stage 19 ahead of them. 67 kilometers of climbing on the 204.5k course, after the double Alpe d’Huez roller coaster on Thursday, should put some real hurt into the riders’ legs.

Chris Froome defended his lead in the General Classification once again on stage 18. Now the Sky leader holds an advantage of over five minutes on his nearest rival, Alberto Contador. Contador struggled on the final climb up Alpe d’Huez, but was able to limit his losses and retain second place overall.

When the yellow jersey group finally fell apart in the last kilometers of the final climb, Nairo Quintana of Movistar was the only rider able to stay with Joaquim Rodriguez when the veteran climber attacked and went clear.  The young Colombian pulled himself up from fifth place overall into a podium spot in third place. He trails second place Contador by 21 seconds. Quintana extended his lead in the young rider’s competition in the process. He now holds a commanding nine-minute lead over Michal Kwiatkowski in that competition.

Stage 19 route

Bauke Mollema struggled some more today and dropped from fourth overall to sixth. His teammate Ten Dam dropped from seventh overall to tenth.

Alejandro Valverde pulled himself back up to 11^th overall today. A tiring Laurens Ten Dam is in his sights, just 17 seconds ahead in tenth place. Kwiatkowski and Rogers are also within 30 seconds ahead of Valverde. The Spaniard could get well into the top ten tomorrow, but a top five spot is probably beyond his reach now.

Jakob Fuglsang of Astana gained one more place. The Dane now holds seventh place overall. Dan Martin of Garmin-Sharp really struggled on Alpe d’Huez and lost over 20 minutes. He dropped from tenth to 19^th on GC.

Friday’s stage 19 from Bourg-D’Oisans to Le Grand-Bornand features five categorized climbs over a 204.5k route. The first two climbs define the first half of the stage. They are the long Col du Glandon (21.6k averaging 5.1% gradient) and the relentless, 2000-meter high Col de la Madeleine (19.2k at 7.9%).  

Stage 19 profile

Again, attacks will probably start immediately, as ambitious riders try to make the break on the first climb. Stage 19 could very well be another good opportunity for a break to succeed.

Profile of the final climb of stage 19, the Croix Fry

The three climbs that mark the second half of the stage are a little less brutal, but taken all together, it is enough for any rider to have a very bad day. Rain is in the forecast, too. The peloton lucked out with the mostly dry weather on Alpe d’Huez, but tense, cautious descending could return tomorrow with a thunder burst.

The final climb is the category 1 Col de le Croix Fry (11.3k at 7%). It tops out 13k before the finish line. Stage contenders will hope to be first over the top before the 13k descent to the finish at Grand-Bornand if they want to secure the win.

The finale shows a short incline to the finish

This is the penultimate opportunity for challengers to make their mark on the race. Saturday is another difficult climbing stage that ends on top of a new addition to the Tour’s mountain repertoire, Annecy-Semnoz. After that just comes Sunday’s flat run in to Paris where the sprinters will have their last shot. The GC battle will be decided Saturday. It is crunch time now.

Stage 19 will be a very difficult stage to pick a winner for. I am going to stick with one of the race favorites, because I think some of the guys in the top ten will try to gain time, and maybe get a stage win in the process.

MY PICK: Jakob Fuglsang

Stage 18 Report 2013 Tour De France Alpe d'Huez Results

Stage 18 from Gap to Alpe d’Huez

172.5k high mountains, mountaintop finish.

Weather: Sunny, 70 f at the start; rain forecast for the later climbs.

The switchbacks of Alpe d'Huez can be seen in the  center

The peloton has made it through seventeen stages of racing. Now they have reached the most talked about stage of the Tour De France: the double climb of Alpe d’Huez. The stage has been looming in the minds of the team directors and their riders for months.

The descent of the Col de Sarenne is known to be rough, technical and perilously exposed. Chris Froome, for one, has publically insisted that the descent is too dangerous. Rain is in the forecast for the latter part of the race, and that has many riders worried. Froome suggested that the race organizers should remove the second climb of Alpe d’Huez, and finish on top of the first ascent, for safety reasons. Of course the race leader would like to get to Paris as soon as possible.

Stage 18 profile

It rained hard overnight, and more rain is expected on Alpe d’Huez later, but at the start line sun is shining on the riders as they wait to get on the road. This is a stage that could change some riders’ fortunes. Who will be first to the finish? And who will be left in the wake?

The Col de Sarenne

It has been reported that the organizers are considering the possibility of altering the course, if they deem the roads unnecessarily dangerous. The report is that they will make that decision on the road. I would not expect a change.

This course has been debated for quite some time now. If they thought rain itself would cause excessive danger, then they would not have planned this stage as such. Also, this is a professional bike race. And it is the Tour De France. The road is not covered in ice or packed with snow. Anyone scared of racing his bike should go home. That is just my opinion.

TO THE ACTION:

The riders have taken the start in Gap.

177 riders take the start today.

The route to Alpe d'Huez

Once again, Johnny Hoogerland of Vacansoleil, attacks right as the flag drops.

Jens Voigt is among the others trying to escape the main bunch.

Jesus Hernandez of Saxo-Tinkoff attacks on the first climb of the day, the 6.6k category-2 Col de Manse. The climb averages 6.2% grade and tops out at 1268 meters high. Some unlucky riders are already being dropped on the first climb.

Tejay Van Garderen of the struggling BMC team is looking to break away.

Saxo and Movistar are among the many attackers on the Col de Manse. The many attacks are splitting the peloton apart all over the climb. Froome is chasing down every move. This is already shaping up to be a very interesting stage.

Chris Froome is separated now from the rest of his teammates.

Stage 18 Preview Alpe d'Huez 2013 Tour De France

Stage 18 on the map

The 100^th Tour De France saw its first inclement weather on the stage-17 time trial to Chorges. Heavy rain is again a strong possibility tomorrow for the mountainous 18^th stage of the Tour De France.  The stage is clearly one for the climbers, with six categorized climbs over the 172.5-kilometer course. For the first time in Tour history, the peloton will do two ascents of the most famous climb in cycling, including a mountaintop finish atop the 21 switchbacks of Alpe d’Huez.

 The mountain has been a Tour staple for decades, and has hosted many thrilling moments. The Bernard Hinault-Greg Lemond drama in 1986; Marco Pantani’s record time in 1997; Armstrong and Ullrich in 2001; and how about Alberto Contador punching that intrusive fan in 2011. Never a dull moment on Alpe d’Huez.

Stage 18 profile

The stage begins in Gap with a familiar ascent. The riders will go over the category-2 Col de Manse almost immediately after the flag drops. The first climb of the day was the last climb on stage 16 to Gap. 30 kms later, the race goes over a small category-3 climb during a jagged up-and-down section, which characterizes the rest of the first half of the stage.

"The Look", 2001

Then comes the cat-2 Col d’Ornon. Topping out at 1371 meters 95k into the stage, the easier side of the Ornon is 5.1k long with a 6.7% average gradient. It could be the site of renewed interest in attacking.

After the descent of the Col d’Ornon, the remaining 60+ kms are serious. Around km 110 the riders will begin the first ascent of Alpe d’Huez. Huge crowds will line the sides of the twisting road up the Tour’s most popular climb—even in the rain. Many will have set up camp days in advance, to be part of the spectacle on the carnival of a climb.

Profile of climbs 4 and 5

This edition offers fans the greatest viewing opportunity on the mountain, as the spectators will enjoy two separate ascents by the peloton. The second ascent should see a very thinned-out field at the front of the race.

The first ascent of Huez is 12.3k at 8.4%. It is an Hors Categorie climb, the highest designation. The KOM line is set at km 122.5.

From the KOM line, the riders will drop down a little ways and then climb the 3 kilometers to the summit of the Col de Sarenne (3k at 7.8%). This takes the riders to the highest point of the stage, at 1999m of elevation.

Profile of the final ascent of Alpe d'Huez

A very challenging descent follows. Rain will be a major factor here, as the riders will be forced to navigate the steep, technical drop down to the town of  La Ferriere. Rain is almost definitely expected on Thursday throughout the course. A crash here could mean the end of the Tour for a rider. With another climb of Alpe d’Huez ahead, the top climbers will not want to take too many chances on the descent.

From La Ferriere the riders will set out for the final climb up to the finish on the summit of Alpe d’Huez. This time around, the HC climb is 13.8k at 8.1% average. The finish is 1850m up, and double KOM points will be available at the finish. Only the very best will be able to compete for the win on stage 18.

Don't get in Contador's way on Huez

The stage has more mountain points available than any other stage at this year’s Tour. Chris Froome currently leads the King of the Mountains competition as well as the overall race. His 88 KOM points puts him 19 points ahead of second placed Nairo Quintana, and 35 points ahead of third placed Mikel Nieve. It is theoretically possible that even someone coming in with 0 KOM points could take the polka dot jersey from Froome by winning every climb on Thursday. 92 KOM points are available on the stage-18 course. 

Stages 19 and 20 each offer over 70 points toward the climbing classification, so a couple of well-executed attacks could potentially upset the KOM standings. If however, Froome or Quintana, let’s say, are among the first finishers on Alpe d’Huez on Thursday, then they would get a lot more points, and probably pull away from the others in that competition.

The huge crowds are always a factor on Huez

Many riders will try to make the breakaway right from the start tomorrow. The pure climbers like Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha Igor Anton of Euskaltel and John Gadret of Ag2R have a chance to do some damage, assuming they can get down the hairy descents in a reasonable position. Anton and Gadret have not shown their best form so far, but sixth-place overall Rodriguez will be hoping to cut into Froome’s race lead with a strong ride.

Some of the high-placed riders may have to sacrifice their own GC ambitions in order to support their respective team leaders in these difficult high mountain stages. Saxo-Tinkoff, Belkin, Garmin-Sharp, and Movistar all have multiple riders in the top 15.

We are guaranteed an exciting battle tomorrow. Have fun watching!

MY PICK: Nairo Quintana

Stage 17 Individual Time Trial Report and Results 2013 TDF

[add final kms gfx]

32k Individual Time Trial

From Embrun to Chorges

Climbing

Weather: Rain is forecast for later on; early starters have dry roads. 

The stage 17 ITT route

The earlier starters could have a distinct advantage over the later starters. Rain later in the day will force the top GC contenders (who start the course last) to exercise added caution on the descents, and could potentially set somewhat slower times.

Gorka Izagirre of Team Euskaltel did not take the start today.

I have not heard word if Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana have made peace after their “misunderstanding” yesterday before the finish in Gap. Contador crashed on the descent a few kilometers before the finish (also delaying Chris Froome), and when he and Froome caught back up with the elite group they had been riding with, el pistolero gave the young Quintana a sarcastic thumbs up.

Contador was said to have intended the sarcasm because Quintana had attacked while Contador and the yellow jersey were down. Quintana said he did not attack when Contador went down, but just continued his pace, as he was thinking about putting time into his white jersey rival, Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quickstep. The difference of opinion came after Contador and Quintana--two riders from different teams--were said to be cooperating to keep Froome from riding away with the race win like Bradley Wiggins did last year.

*Jean-Christophe Peraud of Ag2R crashed on the course this morning during a recon ride. The highest placed Frenchman in the race landed hard on his shoulder, but will take the start today anyway.  They are reporting that his shoulder is fractured. Peraud is a very good climber and is excellent against the clock—particularly on hillier courses. He will do his best to defend his ninth place overall today, while riding hurt. Bad luck for Peraud, and for his team, Ag2R, and for France.

Stage 17 time trial profile

Several riders will opt for a bike change somewhere on the course today. The irregular profile will sometimes favor a TT bike, and sometimes favor a road bike. The riders will have chosen their optimal bike-change location ahead of time. It will be interesting to see who swaps where.

TO THE ACTION:

*Time trial specialist, Lieuwe Westra of Vacansoleil sets an early best time of 54:02 over the 32k hilly course. His teammate Thomas De Gendt, who finished third in the flatter stage-11 time trial, sits in second place, twelve seconds behind Westra.

Stage 17 Individual Time Trial Preview and Profile 2013 TDF

Stage 17 ITT on the map

The Tour De France classifications have a good chance of getting a shake up on Wednesday’s climbing time trial from Embrun to Chorges. Stage 17 is the final time trial of the race. Unlike the stage-11 TT around Mont Saint-Michel, Wednesday’s stage includes two category-2 climbs. This will favor the GC climbers over the flat time trial artists.

The climbs are not easy ones. Each is over six kilometers long and averages over 6% gradient. Beyond the climbing, the technical descents are also getting extra attention. The riders will need excellent bike-handling skills to get down the hills quickly and safely. They will also have to gauge their efforts carefully and take time where they can, in the areas they each excel at.

Rui Costa showed some good descending skills in his stage-16 win on Tuesday. He has a great shot at a top spot tomorrow. Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans are good on a hilly and technical course. Evans has not been performing at his highest level during the Tour, but he might look at this TT as a potential stage win, and give it his all.

Stage 17 time trial profile

Chris Froome is probably going to put even more time into his rivals, but several others could pull off top performances on the course. The most interesting races within the race could be between second and sixth places. All those guys are close on time, and will be fighting for a spot on the podium in Paris. They should all perform well tomorrow.

The technical and hilly 32-km route

Regardless of trying to dismantle Froome, every rider in the top ten will be grappling for higher positions—and there is a lot of wiggle room.

Kwiatkowski and Rogers could jump Dan Martin. Kwiatkowski has a good shot to get back into the top ten. I expect Jakob Fuglsang and Jean-Christophe Peraud could jump Joaquim Rodriguez in the standings, but J-Rod will hope to regain any time he loses when they hit Alpe d’Huez on Thursday, and again in the high mountains on Friday, and again on Saturday.

Mick Rogers could do well, but he may or may not be tasked with saving energy for his leader, Contador, in the Alps the next three days. Alejandro Valverde, Maxime Monfort, and Andreas Klöden are others who will like the course.

Speaking of Valverde, Team Movistar could win the team competition for the day with all the climbing/time trialing talent they have. Valverde, Rui Costa, Quintana, Jonathan Castroviejo, and the Costa Rican native, Andrey Amador. Amador has not been in his best form during this Tour, but he is typically capable of a good TT, especially on a hilly course like this.

Looking further down the standings, Thomas De Gendt, Michael Albasini, Ryder Hesjedal, Jerome Coppel, and on a good day, Rein Taaramae, could also hope for good results. Whether Tony Martin will be able to excel on this course is debatable. I have higher hopes than most, but he is certainly not the runaway favorite on this one.

MY PICK: I really like Froome, Contador and Peraud on this course. But I am going to go out on a limb, sort of, and pick Jeremy Roy of FDJ.