Stage 11 Individual Time Trial Preview 2013 Tour De France

Stage 11 on the map

The race of truth arrives to test the riders’ strength against the clock. The stage-11 time trial on the scenic island of Mont Saint-Michel is the first of two TT’s that measure just over 30k. The next one comes on stage 17 and contains two category-2 climbs. This 33k TT however, is relatively flat, and will favor a somewhat different class of favorites.

the majestic Mont Saint-Michel

We viewers get to enjoy another picturesque day as the Tour De France visits Mont Saint-Michel, but the riders will be too busy eating up the road to enjoy the scenery. Some rearranging of the General Classification will be on the menu.

Omega Pharma’s time trial master, Tony Martin, who endured a concussion, a bruised lung, and a battered body in a stage-1 crash, seems to be riding better and surely will give the TT his all. The GC favorites will be racing hard to limit their losses to—or gain time on—Chris Froome, who excels against the clock. But many very good time trial riders are here to contest this stage.

Stage 11 ITT profile

Besides Martin and Froome, strong performances can be expected from the likes of Michal Kwiatkowski, and Sylvain Chavanel. In fact Omega Pharma-Quickstep have several good TT cards to play on stage 11; Peter Velits and Niki Terpstra are also talented against the clock. I would expect a very high finish for Chavanel.

Several top GC riders like Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Tejay Van Garderen have all been excellent at the TT, but each one’s form has come into question. I think Contador and Evans can pull out good rides on Wednesday, but Tejay doesn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders. I would expect fast times by Jean-Christophe Peraud, Rui Costa, and Bauke Mollema, and probably Alejandro Valverde. All have shown great form lately.

 

The time trial route

Besides the GC guys, good time trial contenders include Lieuwe Westra, Tom Dumoulin, Lars Boom, Svein Tuft, Michael Rogers, Blel Kadri, and more. I have only named one Spaniard so far, but I like one of Movistar’s young talents as a possible spoiler for Tony Martin: 26-year old Jonathan Castroviejo. He has showed excellent results in time trials like these. I see him in the top five at least.

MY PICK: Tony Martin. I would not bet against him. 

My dark-horse pick would be Thomas Dumoulin of Argos-Shimano.

Stage 10 Report and Results 2013 Tour De France

 

197k from Saint-Gildas-des-Bois to Saint-Malo

Weather: 25 c (78 f); sunny; winds: 14mph, windier at the finish; (10^th sunny day in a row); I heard more sun and heat are expected this week.

The picturesque finish town of Saint-Malo

182 riders took the start today.

Dmitry Muravyev of Astana has not abandoned the race, as was reported yesterday.

Ryder Hesjedal was the man responsible for Peter Kennaugh’s scary crash on the Col de Portet-d’Aspet on stage 9. Hesjedal apparently tweeted an apology to Kennaugh.

This is a day for the GC contenders to take a break and recover further from the mountain efforts. It is the sprinters day to animate the race.

The peloton are on the road now.

The early break of 5 consists of: Oroz (EUS), Simon (SOJ), Mate (COF), Westra (VCD), Cousin (EUC); they escaped at the start.

 

Stage 10 profile

Their lead was up to 5:40 at one point;

-145k (90 miles to go): The 5 leaders have a gap of 4:29 to the chasing peloton.

-125k: the lead is 3:58;

Stage 10 Preview and Profile 2013 Tour De France

The apparent ease of the 4 jersey wearers belies a hectic first week

The General Classification contenders will see only two significant challenges in the coming week before the next rest day. Even the mountain jersey hunters will have a few days off. In fact, the next four stages only include a combined total of 2 available mountain points.

The next test for the GC riders comes with the stage-11 time trial from Avranches to Mont Saint-Michel on Wednesday. After that, the next test is the stage-15 mountaintop finish on Mont Ventoux.

The brief but potent sojourn into the Pyrenees created a tense pecking order among the contenders, and now it is time to let the fast men grab some limelight again. The sprinters will have several opportunities in the coming week to stretch their legs on some flat terrain. Stages 10, 12, 13, and possibly 14 could all end with bunch sprints. But let’s take them one at a time.

Stage 10 on the map

The peloton have taken the longest transfer of the race from yesterday’s stage 9 finish in the Pyrenees, all the way up to the Loire-Atlantique department in the Pays-de-la-Loire region in the northwest for stage 10. Tuesday’s stage 10 from Saint-Gildas-des-Bois to Saint-Malo is 197 kilometers of relatively flat roads traveling north through Brittany. Along the way, the views should continue to be spectacular.

 

The finish town of Saint-Malo is an intriguing walled city on the English Channel with much history. An old stronghold of French corsairs and pirates, Saint-Malo’s fortifications endured one of the bitterest battles following the Normandy invasion in the Second World War. The Tour De France will host its own battle there on Tuesday between the sprinters who have come to claim their booty.

Stage 10 Profile

The intermediate sprint point comes at kilometer 127.5, and the only categorized climb of the day is a category-4 veritable bump in the road 55k before the finish. Peter Sagan has been fortifying his lead in the green jersey competition and will look to increase that lead on Tuesday. Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Marcel Kittel and others will have something to say about that. 

 

Unfortunately for all the sprinters, Sagan’s current lead in that competition will be unassailable on Tuesday, as he holds a 93-point lead over second-place Greipel. Sagan will definitely be in green again for the next stage unless he is out of the race for some reason. In fact it does not seem likely that any of the jerseys will change hands on Tuesday.

Stage 10 final kms to the finish

MY PICK: André Greipel. His lead-out train is strong and organized, and he will be motivated to narrow the margin between himself and Peter Sagan.

Tour De France 2013 Notes from week 1 on Rest Day 1

 

REST DAY NOTES:

Nine stages down, twelve to go.  Chris Froome is where we expected he would be at the first rest day: in charge, although his team has showed serious kinks in the armor. We have a general idea of who the real contenders will be for the overall classification, as well as the other jersey competitions. And we have seen who has not brought their best game to the race. The current jersey holders are all good contenders to be wearing those jerseys come Paris. Two more weeks of testing roads stand between them and the Champs Elysees first.

The Orica GreenEdge bus stuck under the stage-1 gantry

The first nine stages added up to one of the most thrilling Tour openings in recent memory. Corsica hosted a beautiful start, and all of Southern France delivered on compelling action. It has been very competitive, full of surprises, several lead changes, elation and deflation, hot sun, some records broken and others neared, tears and laughs, crashes, sacrifices, failure and success. It is the Tour De France.

Looking back at some of the fascinating events and protagonists of the first nine stages I will just pick a few to discuss briefly:

First of all, Chris Froome: He stayed out of trouble for seven days, and then dominated the first mountain stage. He then responded to every attack thrown at him in the second mountain stage. The only problem for Chris “Vroom” was his team. The normally robust Sky squad showed the effects of the heat and physical damage they have suffered with a terrible showing on stage 9. Worse, Froome’s most reliable Sherpa, the Tasmanian Richie Porte, hit the wall on Sunday, losing eighteen minutes, and dropping way, way out of podium contention (He dropped from 2^nd overall to 33^rd). The stage 11 time trial on Wednesday will give Sky another chance to shine.

Alejandro Valverde: He is comfortably sitting in the seat vacated by Richie Porte, second overall, and his Movistar team sent a very powerful message to Chris Froome and the rest of the world that they are a bad-ass force to be reckoned with, and that Sky are maybe not so invincible after all. It was the best refreshment after all the clamor about Froome possibly running away with the maillot jaune like Wiggo last year and making for a dull race. No dullness here.  

Valverde also enjoys a top-notch support squad, each one of which is a high talent in his own right. And Valverde is not as bad a time trialer as many are making him out to be. On a flat course he may be not too dissimilar from the three riders behind him on GC. I would not be surprised if there is very little change in the top 5 after the TT.

Alberto Contador: “el pistolero” has not been at his best so far, but obviously this bears frequent repeating: He gets better over the course of a tour. He hasn’t sounded as confident in the last couple of days as he did before the race, but riders find many ways to cozen their foes and the press. Contador is still perfectly placed to stay in contention for a podium spot—at least. It may be that he will not rediscover that top form, but I would never count the five-time grand tour winner out. Plus he has a high-caliber firing squad of support that includes Roman Kreuziger and Mick Rogers.

Cadel Evans The 2011 Tour champ looked a little shaky for a while there, but he stepped up and stayed with the leaders all the way to the stage 9 finish, and picked himself up from 23^rd to 16^th. Unfortunately the time he lost on stage 8 is probably enough to keep him from hoping for anything above a top-five finish. Still, he recovers as well as any Tour champion I’ve ever seen and if he is one of the few remaining in the last mountainous week, he could still net a high spot.

J-Rod: Katusha’s diminutive torque-thrower Joaquim Rodriguez has not yet tasted the tastiest stages for his mountain goat legs. But he stayed with the front group through the treacherous ninth stage, and more importantly stayed with them all the way through the 30k descent and flat finish. He could have a surprising TT and possibly remain a legitimate podium candidate, at least. Though TT’s are not purito’s forte, so he will have to be patient until stage 15, when the Mont Ventoux finish will beckon for the climbers’ return.

Everybody seems to be calling Bauke Mollema a “surprise”. I do not find anything surprising about the good-going of the Dutch rider for Team Belkin. I mentioned in my TDF race preview several stage races in which he made top-5 this year, including finishing second at the TDF warm-up race, the Tour de Suisse. He has showed good TT results, and continues to climb with the best. Mollema could be just coming into his own now, and although his past Tours De France have not been exceptional, this year does seem to offer him a good opportunity to show what he can do.

The other important riders I want to discuss are the young riders.

Nairo Quintana has been putting on the kind of show that we have come to cherish about him. He rides with calm composure and then periodically, at will, puts in some serious damaging attacks. He reminds me of Contador a few years ago, the way he can attack and come back, and attack and attack and attack. He is one of the most entertaining riders of this year’s race, and a very good bet to win the white jersey now.

Thibaut Pinot: the young French hope was in close contention for white jerseys at stage races all season long. He was also runner-up in two mountain jersey competitions, and rode a powerful Tour de Suisse right before the Tour De France, finishing fourth overall, sixth on points, and 2^nd in the KOM. Suddenly, Pinot’s prospects for this Tour are dwindling fast. He was 10^th overall last year and 2^nd in the young rider’s competition, despite having revealed a serious handicap: he fears descending. How he dealt with it last year, I don’t know, but if he does not find a way to deal with it, then he will never be the grand tour contender his team and his country are hoping for.

Pinot lost a devastating 25 minutes yesterday on stage 9. At the finish he made some damning remarks like, “I cracked on the descent… I'm afraid of speed. It's a phobia,” and “When I saw that I was not able to stay on the wheel of a rider like Mark Cavendish on the descent of a mountain pass, I asked myself: ‘What am I doing on the Tour?' I received the clear response that I have nothing to do here." He continued, ”I don't know if I will be able to get over this trauma.”  We knew he was not a great descender, but this is an issue that should not be rearing its ugly head during the Tour De France. At least Sunday’s revelations will have to inspire FDJ to work on Pinot’s problem, either with training or psychological therapy, or whatever they can come up with to dispel his “fear of speed”.

Michal Kwiatkowski recovered on stage 9 to climb back up to 13^th overall. His talent is big and he is showing the heart to capitalize on it. The TT’s might be his friend as he fights to climb higher in the standings, and actively take on Quintana for the white jersey. I cannot wait to see how he goes for the next two weeks.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Enjoy the rest of the race!

 

Stage 9 Report and Results 2013 Tour De France

168.5k from Saint-Girons to Bagneres-de-Bigorre

High Mountains

Mostly sunny, around 28c (82f) at lower elevations, several degrees lower at altitude.

Much climbing is on the menu today. Should be a good one.

Check out my stage 9 Preview to see specs on the climbs. And you can always find previous posts in the right column of the page under “Archive”.

Chris Froome stamped his authority on the race yesterday on the first big mountain stage. The other teams will have to come up with some creative tactics to unseat the talented Team Sky leader.

Cadel Evans, whose team BMC had a terrible day on stage 8, put it succinctly when asked about his time loss yesterday: “A lot of guys went faster than me…”

Stage 9 Profile

TO THE ACTION:

185 riders took the start this morning.

DNS: Rohan Dennis (GRS), and Michael Schär (BMC).

At the drop of the starting flag, Johnny Hoogerland (VCD) attacked immediately. The Vacansoleil rider was one of the early attackers on stage 8, yesterday, too. He jumped right at the start yesterday just as today, and was with the lead group for the first 150 kilometers.

It’s good to see Hoogs attacking like this again. He has had a long hard recovery from the crash that took him out of the 2011 Tour de France. You probably recall one of the most horrible crashes in recent memory, when a France Television car made the absurd decision to avoid hitting a tree by wildly swerving right into the front of the peloton, taking out Juan Antonio Flecha and sending Hoogerland flying into a barbed wire fence. He says he still suffers from that injury. It could only have been exacerbated in February of this year when Hoogerland was hit by a car while training, breaking several ribs and other bones around his spine, and suffered internal bleeding and a bruised liver.

JH is soon joined by Cyril Lemoine (Sojasun) and Laurent Didier (Radioshack).

Well, that did not last long. The peloton has caught the first three escapees.

-160k: Now, Jeremy Roy (FDJ), and Michael Albasini (Orica) try a move, but it is quickly foiled.